The Cinderella start to the season for the Winnipeg Jets has struck midnight as their slump has hit ten games. The club that won 15 of their first 16 games of the season has lost seven of their last ten overall. They’ve also lost their last four in a row. A beginning to the season that was unquestionably unsustainable has started to turn from a regression to the mean, to overall panic amongst Jets supporters. Is it time to panic in Winnipeg? Let’s take a dive into the Jets slump and see what is the cause for their downtick in results.
What the Winnipeg Jets Can Do About their Slump
After dropping both games in the state of Florida to the Lightning and the Panthers in mid-November, it appeared the magic had worn off for the Jets. They were outscored 9-1 in those two games and significantly outplayed. In contrast, they regrouped to take three of their next four games and seemed to right the ship. However, since then they’ve lost four in a row including their latest game, a shocking performance at home to the middling St. Louis Blues.
Four Winnipeg Jets Who Are 2025 4 Nations Face-Off Top Candidates
Over the course of the last ten games, Winnipeg owns a 3-7-0 record and has the second-lowest point percentage in the NHL over that time period (only Chicago is worse). Two bad games a few weeks ago has ballooned into over a weeks worth of subpar play. It can also be argued that one of their wins in that stretch was only due to the brilliance of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (4-1 win in Minneapolis, Minnesota versus the Wild) who was just named to Team USA for the Four Nations Face-Off. The Jets carved out an outstanding situation for themselves with their scorching start to the season, but even so, a stretch of bad play can only go on for so long without raising true red flags.
Searching for Causes Behind their Slump
Diving into the numbers of their ten game slump, some areas remain strong for the Jets. For instance, their penalty kill is rolling along at an 80% clip (24/30) which is more than respectable given that eight of those last ten games have been away from Canada Life Centre. However, several aspects of their game have gone completely absent.
Goals Against
The Jets have allowed 33 goals over this ten game stretch, just two fewer than Ottawa and Florida for most in the NHL. As a viewer watching the games, you could argue that their goaltending has been completely fine and in most of these games, the strongest part of their game. That is the issue. Hellebuyck and Comrie have needed to be perfect of late in order for the team to skate away with any points.
5-on-5 Goals and Scoring Chances
This has been a huge issue of late for Winnipeg. The Jets aren’t scoring at all at 5-on-5 play. They’ve tallied a mere 13 goals at 5-on-5 in their last ten games which is third fewest in the league over that time. Nine of those goals have come in their three wins. They’re also fifth worst in scoring chances created at 5-on-5 play and fifth worst in High Danger Chances %.
Kyle Connor has just two goals in his last ten games. Also, the injured Nikolaj Ehlers has no goals in his last eight games. Even with the Team Canada nod, Josh Morrissey is goalless in those last ten games. Meanwhile, their depth scoring has dried up almost completely with their bottom-six forward group (Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, Nino Niederreiter, Rasmus Kupari, Alex Iafallo, and Morgan Barron) having combined for ten goals in ten games, three of which are empty net tallies.
5-on-5 High Danger Chances Against
In my opinion, this is the most alarming statistic given its context. Winnipeg is 3rd in High Danger Chances Against in their last ten games. The fact that they are creating so little offensively at 5-on-5 is one thing, but when you combine the fact that they are loose defensively as well, it’s a problem. This team prides itself on stalwart defensive play and posture. It’s not there at the moment. Their team save percentage of .921 (good for 11th rank in the NHL) at 5-on-5 is actually above league average over this stretch which would lead you to believe the goaltending has been good enough to win. However, combine this with their overall goals against total, their chances created, and their record over the last ten games, they’re probably fortunate to have as many wins as they do.
Takeaways and Looking Forward During the Winnipeg Jets Slump
Quite clearly it hasn’t been very positive for the Jets of late. They have to find their play 5-on-5 and build from there. That is the key to their play and one of the pillars of their identity. They must clean up their own zone, possess the puck, and create more chances heading towards the other teams net at 5-on-5. It sounds obvious (and it might be) but that is what the data and eye test is telling me.
Their upcoming stretch of games is a fantastic opportunity for them to do so: six of their next eight games come against teams in the bottom-12 of the NHL standings (Buffalo, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, San Jose, Anaheim). Though this latest stretch of play is making times uneasy for Winnipeg Jets supporters, the schedule ahead gives them a prospect of stability.
Main Photo Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
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