The Ottawa Senators have three distinct reasons why the 2024-25 team is much improved over years past, gone by. They were close in 2022-23 when Alex DeBrincat was on the team. However, this year’s team has been different. Sure, they’ve struggled at times with some losing streaks. But they’ve always been able to stay on top of it, turn it around, and go on a winning stretch. So, let’s dive in and analyze what exactly makes this year’s version different (specifically better).
Comparing the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators with the 2022-23 Edition
Before we hammer down on the current team, a quick note on the 2022-23 team. As a matter of fact, between 2017-18 and 2023-24, it was the only season the team’s point percentage was above .476 (it was .524). Furthermore, for Alex DeBrincat, he never had a big season offensively that year. He had 27 goals and 39 assists for 66 points (good for fourth on the team). However, he was a part of the reason why the Sens were a complete team that year. He was a major factor in Shane Pinto putting up 20 goals as a second-line centre, in what was his rookie campaign.
It also didn’t seem to matter who the Sens had in net that year. Seven goalies started at least one NHL game that year for Ottawa (of the seven, only Leevi Merilainen failed to be credited with a victory). The three goalies who played the most, had respectable records, even if their other stats may have been lacking. Mads Sogaard (8-6-3), Cam Talbot (17-14-2), and Anton Forsberg (11-11-2) were a big reason why they missed the playoffs by only six points. In addition, Tim Stutzle (90), Brady Tkachuk (83), and Claude Giroux (79) had big years constantly powering the squad through on the scoresheet.
The main takeaway from that season was with a little more structure systematically and depth, talent wise, the group was close. That brings us to this year, where combining more health throughout the lineup and now a couple major deadline additions, the Sens have powered their pathway over the old proverbial hump. Therefore, let’s study three major contributing factors to the Sens on-ice success in 2024-25.
First up, the First or Third Line Rather of Defence
One of the reasons the Senators are stronger this year is their six defencemen. They have found a three-pair combination that has been effective and efficient. Nick Jensen coming over from the Washington Capitals for Jakob Chychrun has provided Thomas Chabot with the type of partnership he has longed for. Moreover, this has allowed Artem Zub and Jake Sanderson to settle-in together. Okay Sen fans, don’t say match made in heaven, but the top two are close and the third pairing isn’t far off either.
Tyler Kleven seems to have matured into an NHL defenceman and Nikolas Matinpalo has provided support. They make up a smart and, more important, physical final defensive duo. What more could you ask for on a roster that has lacked toughness. This is especially so when compared against fellow Atlantic Division rival teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Florida Panthers.
| LD | RD | Minutes | xG% | Goal% |
| 2024-25 | ||||
| Chabot | Jensen | 826 | 48.5 | 54.8 |
| Sanderson | Zub | 538 | 55.6 | 41.5 |
| Kleven | Matinpalo | 217 | 42.5 | 50 |
| 2022-23 | ||||
| Chabot | Zub | 468 | 54.7 | 54.2 |
| Sanderson | Hamonic | 752 | 49.6 | 42.9 |
| Holden | Brannstrom | 441 | 56.2 | 50 |
The Last Line of Defence, the Starting Goaltender
The next differentiator for the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators versus recent teams is Linus Ullmark. Being the Vezina Trophy winner from only back in 2022-23, he’s a goalie that will steal you games. Now, he has been bit with bouts of below-par play at times this year. In contrast, he has played at an elite-level quite often. 18 times when he has seen 20 or more shots, he had a save percentage of .912 or better. (That includes last night’s victory versus the Toronto Maple Leafs stopping 21 of 23 shots). In those 18 contests, he’s 14-3-1. Additionally, if you focus in on games he had a .923 SV% or better, he’s 12-0-0.
Overall on the season, he is 18-11-3 with three shutouts, a 2.66 GAA, and a .911 SV%. Comparing across the league, his 10.4 GSAx has him 21st in the NHL. However, where that is a cumulative stat, many of the goalies ahead of him have the advantage of having played more. The main example is the leader, Connor Hellebuyck, at 36.4, has 51 games against Ullmark’s 34. In any case, Ullmark is a big reason for the Sens turnaround in 2024-25. When he’s on, the Sens are hard to beat.
Understanding the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators Forward Looking Optimism
The final difference, albeit a subtle one, comes from analyzing this roster’s forward group compared against others from recent years. When their key guys, especially centres, have been healthy, even going back a few years, the Sens have consistently won. Names like Joshua Norris and Shane Pinto missing time in this and other recent lineups, has been unfortunately costly for the outcomes of games.
However, this year’s managerial accountability addressed that issue. They brought in dependable guys, guys that are terrific at pushing the needle in the Sens favour. Michael Amadio and David Perron are great examples of guys that move those chains. Therefore, even if the Sens game-to-game lineup availability isn’t head coach Travis Green’s first choice, they have the foot soldiers to tow the line. Also, their top-end point producers are playing like top performers. We haven’t even mentioned the acquisitions of Dylan Cozens and Fabian Zetterlund further forcing favourable fates for Sen fans.
Based on our analysis, we have identified three crucial on-ice factors powering the Sens this year. As a result, we hinted at the similar off-ice changes paying off in spades as well. That’s not to mention the certain upgrade the trade deadline brought. It will be very interesting what the potential of a higher salary cap in 2025-26 brings this offseason. Maybe we can do a similar analysis a year from now, and Sens fans will be even more optimistic. Only time will tell, so stay tuned and buckle up for the race to spring hockey.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers – Imagn Images
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