Marlins left-hander Braxton Garrett will undergo a revision surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow with an internal brace, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The southpaw will miss the entire 2025 season. Mish adds that the Fish are looking at free agency as a way to replace Garrett in their rotation.
It’s another unfortunate development in the health department, both for Garrett and the Marlins. The lefty had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in the summer of 2017, which led to him missing the back half of that season and all of 2018.
After recovering from that surgery, he got back on track and made it to the major leagues, serving as an up-and-down guy for the 2020 to 2022 seasons. In 2023, he seemed to establish himself as a viable big league rotation member. He tossed 159 2/3 innings for Miami that year, allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. His 23.7% strikeout rate was around league average but he had a solid 49.7% ground ball rate and excellent 4.4% walk rate.
But 2024 was a challenge for him, as he made multiple trips to the injured list and only made seven starts. A left shoulder impingement put him on the shelf to start the year. He was back by the middle of May and made his seven appearances over the next few weeks, but then was back on the IL due to a left forearm flexor strain. He was rehabbing in September and seemed ready to come off the IL but suffered a setback when he “felt something” in the back of his elbow. He was diagnosed with an elbow impingement in October and seemed set for a mostly healthy offseason, but that prognosis has apparently changed.
It’s unfortunate for Garrett on a couple of fronts. He’s 27 years old, turning 28 in August of this year, so he’s now set to miss a full season of what could have been his prime. It will hurt him financially as well. He just qualified for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player, meaning he’ll get four passes instead of the normal three. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.8MM salary next year. After missing all of 2025, he’ll likely be slated for the same salary when he hopefully returns to the mound in 2026. Even if he comes back healthy and effective, he’ll be nudging up his salary from a lower foundation than if he had stayed healthy.
For the Marlins, their rotation picture has frequently changed in recent years. The Fish managed to sneak into the playoffs in 2023, partially thanks to a starting staff consisting of Garrett, Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera. But all of those guys were either hurt or ineffective in 2024, causing the club’s competitive chances to fall apart.
There was a chance of having that whole gang back together in 2025 but Luzardo was recently traded to the Phillies and now Garrett is going to be on ice. Miami isn’t planning to compete in 2025 anyhow, based on their lack of offseason additions as well as their trades of Luzardo and Jake Burger, but it’s still less than ideal for Garrett to go down like this. Given his age and years of club control, he was in line to be part of the club’s next competitive window. That could still be the case but the path ahead is a bit foggier now.
Going into 2025, they could still have a rotation core of Alcántara and Cabrera. They could welcome back Pérez midseason, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo and Adam Mazur are candidates to take the ball as well. Prospect Robby Snelling isn’t yet on the 40-man but could push his way into the mix.
Given the club’s lack of offseason activity, both in the previous offseason and the current one, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they just rolled with that group and let the chips fall where they may, but it seems as though they will look to add a veteran via free agency. That is perhaps related to recent reporting that they may need to get their competitive balance tax number up to $105MM in order to avoid a grievance from the MLB Players Association related to the usage of their revenue-sharing funds. RosterResource currently pegs their CBT number at $83MM, so it seems they will have to find ways to bridge that gap.
Acquiring a player making decent money from another club would be one way to do that, but free agency is obviously another. The starting pitching market has been hot but guys like Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney are still out there. It would be a surprise if the Marlins went after those guys, who are surely looking for notable multi-year deals, but the market also has guys that will likely be limited to one-year deals such as Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin, Chris Flexen, Lance Lynn, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, Spencer Turnbull and more.