Is Bobby Marks right or wrong with his preseason assessment?
If you paid attention, you might’ve noticed that the Miami Heat were one of the more inactive organizations, at least amongst the top contenders, leaguewide this offseason — despite being heaved into nearly every trade rumor imaginable for Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell.
They lost P.J. Tucker to the Philadelphia 76ers, but re-signed Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin and Dewayne Dedmon all to team-friendly contracts plus drafted Nikola Jovic with the No. 27 pick and re-vamped their two-way contractual situation.
While the Heat — coming off an Eastern Conference-best 53-29 season, finishing one game (and perhaps one shot) from their second NBA Title berth in three seasons — not everyone believes they’re title contenders, which is more than fair. And while he has them in the East’s top-6 this year, NBA general manager and current ESPN NBA Analyst Bobby Marks, who predicted the Heat make the NBA Finals last year, could see them as a play-in team in 2022-23.
“I have the Heat in the top-6 this year, but I think you could make the argument as them being in the play-in,” Marks said in a Youtube video earlier this week. “And it pains me to say it, living down here in South Florida. (The) big picture: Year two of Kyle Lowry — 36-years-old, 13th in total minutes among active players — we saw him in the playoffs, and certainly battled injuries, did not play well at all, defensive liability. Do we see a bit of a redemption of Kyle Lowry in Miami in year two?
“What about the loss of P.J Tucker, who plays power forward? Are we going to see a heavy dose of Caleb Martin and Jimmy Butler (at the 4)? That’s a concern … Duncan Robinson, perhaps, maybe. The big question that I will hover over this roster during training camp is the Tyler Herro extension — we saw four (years) for $107 (million) for R.J. Barrett. Is that going to be the same number?” he added.
In all fairness, the Heat were the only top-8 seed from the Eastern Conference a year ago that didn’t add established NBA talent externally. That said, some — such as the Sixers, Atlanta Hawks or Boston Celtics — added more than, say, the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls. But the closest thing Miami added was Jovic, Darius Days/Marcus Garrett, a fully healthy Victor Oladipo and Jimmy Butler’s dreads-that-are-really-just-extensions. That’s it.
Miami does have a considerable gap to close at the starting 4 spot, as a result of Tucker leaving. The expectation was that it was going to be filled heading into the season. Until it wasn’t — now it has a combination of Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith or Omer Yurtseven to choose from, among others. It could still acquire 2019-20 Heat legend Jae Crowder, whose divorce with the Phoenix Suns could lead him to being on a contending team as the season approaches.
“And the other thing is the resources to explore the trade market — (Miami is) $162,000 below the tax, can trade a 2023, 2027 and 2029 (first round pick), the expiring contracts of Herro, [Max Strus] and [Gabe Vincent], and then the $75 million owed to Duncan Robinson.”
I recently wrote a column questioning if Miami was being viewed as the so-called “Dangerous Loomers” that ESPN famously dubbed them in January, when they were towards the top of the East. They might be, by some.
But as I previously mentioned, perhaps the most dangerous thing in sports is labeling the Heat as underdogs. That’s when they thrive; that’s when they scratch and claw; they salivate for being counted out. Miami has a very talented roster with the proverbial “dawg in him” aurora. Anything can happen in an 82-game season, so I wouldn’t necessarily count them out, yet.