Wednesday evening will see four teams in very different places fight for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences.
For the third straight season, the 39-43 Bulls will be squaring off against the 37-45 Heat in a play-in tournament game. This year, however, Chicago seems to have the edge. Per BetOnline, the Bulls are a marginal favorite as the home team.
Having moved on from former All-Star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago has been emphasizing more pace and ball movement. Star guards Coby White and Josh Giddey are propelling a fast-breaking offense that won 15 of its last 20 games to close out the 2024/25 regular season.
Rookie forward Matas Buzelis has benefited mightily from extended run to close out the year, while center Nikola Vucevic has adapted well to this speedier iteration of the team, operating as a trailing big who can be a release valve in these frenetic offensive sets.
Recently extended guard Lonzo Ball (wrist) and new trade acquisition Tre Jones (foot) will miss Wednesday’s game.
The No. 10 Heat, meanwhile, have been up and down since their blockbuster midseason Jimmy Butler trade. Armed with new additions Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, the club stumbled into a 10-game losing skid that was immediately followed by a six-game winning streak. Miami, which controls its own 2025 first-round pick as long as it lands in the top 14, might be happy to lose this matchup and reset with a quick rebuild through this year’s loaded draft lottery.
Chicago team president Arturas Karnisovas has been a frequent source of fan ire. He and ownership would probably like to see the young Bulls appear in their first playoff series since 2022. If Chicago does clinch a playoff appearance by beating Miami and then the Hawks in Friday’s final play-in game, would it prompt Karnisovas to shy away from the kinds of personnel changes he might otherwise pursue this summer, including a Vucevic trade for draft equity?
The Mavericks, on paper, are fielding the most talented squad out of the four Wednesday teams. Had nine-time All-Star guard Kyrie Irving not torn his ACL, Dallas could have been in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead, the 39-43 Mavs are clinging to the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed. With most of the rest of the roster healthy, the club will be riding a super-sized frontcourt lineup centered around 10-time All-Star big man Anthony Davis as its two-way fulcrum.
Dallas was constructed to win around Luka Doncic. After sending him to Los Angeles in exchange for Davis, three-and-D swing Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick, the front office was roundly criticized. Still, with Irving, Davis, and talented two-way wings and frontcourt pieces, a healthy version of this team looks like it could be a legitimate tough playoff out. Due to the timing of Irving’s recovery and Davis’ extensive injury history, it’s unclear when exactly that healthy iteration might next be available.
Meanwhile, Doncic has raised the Lakers’ ceiling. If Dallas misses the playoffs, will the club’s new ownership cohort look to penalize Nico Harrison for the most unpopular transaction in its franchise’s history? The Mavericks do have the highest upside of any of the teams in action on Wednesday, but that comes with a massive health caveat.
Dallas will be facing off against a mostly-healthy Kings club for the right to play the Grizzlies on Friday.
After Sacramento team owner Vivek Ranadive fired former Coach of the Year Mike Brown midway through the season, guard De’Aaron Fox pushed for – and received – a deal to the Spurs. The 40-42 Kings have since struggled with their newest impact player, LaVine, under interim head coach Doug Christie. Sacramento is loaded with ball stoppers – including LaVine, DeRozan, and Malik Monk – but has perhaps the more talented offense than Dallas sans Irving, thanks in large part to do-everything All-Star center Domantas Sabonis.
Should Sacramento get booted in this initial play-in tournament matchup, would Sabonis seek a trade out of town? A report in March suggested that the big man is expected to “seek clarity” this offseason on the Kings’ direction.
Just two years ago, during Brown’s inaugural season, the Kings finally seemed to have discovered a direction and identity. Now, the club is floundering in mediocrity. Massive changes — perhaps starting with Christie and Sabonis — could be underway for the team this summer, barring a strong playoff run.
We want to know what you think. How will the offseason play out for the the teams that get bounced in Wednesday’s games? What changes would – or should – be made if all four clubs fail to qualify for the playoffs?