at the SEC’s expense
Unthinkable just a week or two ago, the recent chaos caused by the SEC (and to a lesser extent, the Big XII) has thrust the ACC into a position to earn as many as three playoff bids in the inaugural twelve team playoffs. Last night, the playoff committee slotted Miami as the No. 6 ranked team, SMU as No. 9, and Clemson at No. 12.
SMU (10-1, 7-0) is a lock to play in the ACC Championship regardless if they beat Cal (6-5, 2-5) on Saturday. Miami (10-1, 6-1) controls its destiny to play for a conference title: beat Syracuse (8-3, 4-3) up north and the Hurricanes will punch their ticket to Charlotte. Clemson (9-2, 7-1), who has finished their ACC schedule, faces in-state rival South Carolina (8-3, 5-3) on Saturday and will advance to the ACC Championship if Miami stumbles at Syracuse.
If Clemson, Miami, or SMU lose this weekend they can almost certainly kiss goodbye any shot of a CFP at-large birth. But what if they don’t? What if all three win? Our friends at Draft Kings favor all three to win their closing contests. SMU is a 13.5 point favorite, Miami is a 10.5 point favorite, and Clemson is a 2.5 favorite. The odds of a three-way parlay hitting on SMU, Miami, and Clemson all winning is +162 odds (i.e. about 8-5 odds, or a roughly 39% chance). Not bad.
The path to three ACC playoff teams then becomes realistic. Obviously the winner of Miami vs. SMU earns the automatic birth to the playoffs. The loser would be a two-loss conference runner-up whose second loss is ‘respectable’ relatively speaking: Miami’s being a one possession loss at presently 7 win Georgia Tech; and SMU’s being a one possession loss to presently 9 win BYU. By the way, those losses could look even better this weekend should Georgia Tech shock Georgia or BYU sneak back into the Big XII title game. As for Clemson, they’ll be coming off a hypothetical win over a surging South Carolina team that itself is on the playoff bubble as a three loss SEC team. If these teams finish with two losses, the ESPN Playoff Predictor gives Miami a 71% chance to get an at-large birth as the ACC runner-up, SMU a 44% chance for an at-large birth as the ACC runner-up, and Clemson a 37% chance for an at-large birth if their season ends on Saturday with win.
Frankly, the odds seem better than that. One point of insight of the Playoff Committee’s thinking is that they’ve generally ranked Miami, SMU, and Clemson ahead of SEC teams that have an extra loss. Last week, the committee put Miami (8) ahead of then-two loss teams Ole Miss (8), Georgia (9), Tennessee (10), and Texas A&M (15) – and Miami was essentially tied with then-two loss Alabama (7), who they flipped while Miami was on a bye week. Also, back in Week 11, then-undefeated Miami (4) was ahead of every SEC team including one-loss Texas (5).
The Committee has ranked SMU similar to Miami, albeit a tad weaker. In Week 11, the Committee ranked one loss SMU (13) ahead of two loss Texas A&M (14), LSU (15), and Ole Miss (16). However, last week the Committee had one loss SMU (13) slotted behind two loss Alabama (7), Ole Miss (9), Georgia (10), and Tennessee (11). The significance of that is the Committee might drop SMU further than it would be willing to drop Miami.
For a two-loss ACC Runner-Up Miami or SMU, the question is whether the Committee would drop the loser behind a three-loss SEC team like Alabama or Georgia (as an SEC runner-up). The SEC loving, media spin machine is already advocating for a three loss Georgia team to be selected if the Bulldog’s third loss is in the SEC Championship Game (Georgia is locked to play this weekend’s winner of Texas vs. Texas A&M). The same should be said for Miami and SMU. Both are ranked this week as worthy of an at-large bid, and in theory that shouldn’t change if one loses to the other in a conference title game.
The path for Clemson is a bit more precarious because the Tigers are the first team out and need to jump somebody ahead of them. A Boise State loss won’t help because they’re taking a conference champion slot, not an at-large slot. Clemson probably needs one of the following upsets: No. 8 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5); No. 7 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4); or No. 10 Indiana (10-1) v. Purdue (1-10). Vandy and Georgia Tech both have some chance of pulling off the upset considering each has already pulled it off this year against Alabama and Miami, respectively. Purdue is so bad they would envy a season like FSU’s, so fat chance of an Indiana upset. But it seems likely that a two-loss Clemson team would move ahead of a three loss Tennessee team or a four loss Georgia team (if the Bulldogs also lost the SEC title game). There is also some chance the Committee would slot a two-loss Clemson team ahead of a two-loss Notre Dame team should the Irish lose their finale against USC. Although it’d require a huge drop for Notre Dame, Clemson would then have a better ‘best’ win (South Carolina > Texas A&M) while Notre Dame would have a much worse ‘worst’ loss (Northern Illinois < Louisville or a Georgia blowout). One other variable is if three loss Texas A&M upsets Texas and Georgia to claim the SEC Championship. While unlikely, that would assure the SEC of a three loss team in the field possibly squeezing out Clemson.
As a final variable to consider, there is some chance Miami could be selected for an at-large birth even if they lose to Syracuse on Saturday (ESPN gives it a 39% chance). But this article is about all three ACC teams making the playoffs. If the ACC Championship game is between SMU and Clemson, a three-loss Clemson would almost certainly be out. If Clemson won the ACC, now the Committee would have to decide between two loss SMU and two loss Miami, and the only way both would be selected is if one of the aforementioned upsets occurred to other potential at-large teams. So the scenario required to get all three of these teams into the playoffs is essentially the same.
So, to recap:
- Miami, SMU, and Clemson need to all win this weekend or else ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips’ dream of 3 ACC teams being selected is probably dead on arrival (with a small chance if Miami loses but SMU wins Saturday and Clemson wins this Saturday and the ACC Championship).
- If all three win, the ACC Championship game loser between Miami and SMU will have two losses and the Committee cannot drop them below another team seeking an at large-birth (mainly three-loss SEC teams). This seems likely, and the ACC would be in a great position to get two playoff teams.
- Clemson is currently outside looking in as a third ACC team, so the Tigers probably need one more at-large seeking team to be upset this weekend. The best chances for that are Vandy over Tennessee or Georgia Tech over Georgia (although Georgia still has a shot at the automatic birth as an SEC Champion). USC dropping Notre Dame to two losses might also do the trick.
That’s not a likely scenario, but it’s plausible.