Louisville had a double-digit win season, but also dropped strange games to Pitt, Kentucky, and a Jordan Travis-less FSU. Can Brohm keep the Cards more focused in ‘24?
The Louisville Cardinals had a banner year to start the Jeff Brohm Era. Brohm, a former Cardinals quarterback, finally took the helm of his alma mater and posted a 10-4 record and top-20 ranking in his inaugural season.
Brohm arrived back home at UofL after a six year run at Purdue where the Boilermakers won the Big Ten West in his final season at the helm. Brohm’s record at Purdue was 36-34 (26-25 in the conference).
Prior to Purdue, Brohm was the head coach at Western Kentucky where the Hilltoppers were 30-10 under his tutelage including three straight bowl appearances.
UofL will face four preseason ranked opponents in 2024: the Miami Hurricanes being one, as well as in-state rival Kentucky, Notre Dame, and the Clemson Tigers.
Miami has an 11-4-1 edge of Louisville all-time, but the Cards did beat the Hurricanes in a barm burner last year.
Program Evaluation
Acquisition
Per 247 Sports, the Cards had the 13th ranked recruiting class in the ACC in 2024. The ‘24 class’s composite ranking is 58th and the transfer ranking was 13th. Brohm has been portal heavy since arriving back home in Louisville in a ‘win now’ mentality.
The ‘23 class was 29th in composite ranking and had seven four-star players compared to zero in ‘24. While Brohm has pulled transfers from typical powers like Alabama, he’s also scoured around the G5 and FCS pulling in athletes from Yale, Harvard, and Toledo RB Peny Boone (four-star transfer)
Development
The Cards currently have 20 active NFL players including QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson, a former Heisman Trophy winner during his time at UofL, is the reigning MVP of the NFL. Brohm helped put QB Jack Plummer into the league as a free agent, and had draft picks in Jamari Thrash, Isaac Guerendo, and Jawhar Jordan.
Deployment
Deployment objectively can best be judged by Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system. The SP+ combines returning production with recent recruiting (recency is biased) and recent history (2-4 seasons).
The Cards are the 24th best team in college football per the SP+. Brohm’s squad of transfers are 44th on offense, 21st on defense, and 64th in kicking. Louisville is more than likely the 2nd best team Miami will face in the regular season after Florida State.
Miami’s SP+ OODK has the ‘Canes at 21st overall, 17th on offense, 38th on defense and 3rd in kicking. This could be another matchup between the two where the last one with the ball wins as both teams should be capable of putting up 40+ on any given Saturday.
Level Up: Area of Improvement
Louisville can level up if the Cards find a way not to blow games against lesser opponents. In ‘23, the Cardinals lost to Pitt 38-12 after beating NC State and Notre Dame. Then after a run of beating Duke and Miami, the Cards lost to Kentucky at home to end the regular season.
Louisville then lost to FSU in the ACC Championship Game without the ‘Noles even being able to throw the football without Jordan Travis. It was a tale of two seasons for Brohm and mental toughness will be the key to their ‘24 season.
Hedgehog Concept
You might think with Brohm being an offensive coach the Cards would put their eggs into the offensive basket. But QB Tyler Shough has been oft-injured in his college career and Louisville brought in eight new starters on offense via the transfer portal.
Instead it’s the defense that will drive the program in ‘24. The Cards only brought in three starters via the portal on Ron English’s side of the ball and DL Ashton Gillotte returns with 14.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks and three forced fumbles. CB Quincy Riley returns with 12 PBU’s a year ago, while S Devin Neal brings back a team leading four INT’s.
Most Interesting Game from ‘23
The Pitt upset has to be the most interesting game on the Cards ‘23 schedule. While losing to Kentucky hurt, you can justify an ‘anything goes’ mentality in a rivalry game. But losing to a bad Pitt team made no sense at the time.
Pat Narduzzi’s 4-2-5 defense rattled Plummer. He threw two interceptions on 6.7 yards per attempt, and the Panthers sacked Plummer four times, with eight TFL’s and seven PBU’s. What you hope by watching these games is that Narduzzi offers a blueprint for how to stop Brohm’s offense, even with the amount of talent off to the NFL now.
GIFs
Above– Save this one in your memory bank. Pitt brings pressure, gets in Plummer’s face, and he throws off his back foot into traffic. This one is a 1st down, just wait until later.
Above– Who am I to tell Narduzzi how to play coverage but not taking away the inside release when you knew your safety was in the run fit seems careless. It’s either a slant or fade here and by playing head up man you’re not taking away the easier (slant) of the two.
Above– Pitt has one DT in a 2i (inside shoulder of the guard) and the other in a 1 (or shade, shoulder of the center). With that, they bring A-gap pressure as well. How did New England beat up on Peyton Manning every season when he was a Colt? A-gap pressure.
Outside pressres allow a QB to step up to avoid, which is what the want. A-Gap pressure forces the QB to escape outside if they can at all.
Above– When front seven’s play their role they’re coached to play, the run game gets hard. When the run game gets hard, backs start to fight for extra yards. Fighting for extra yards, in sloppy conditions, leads to turnovers. One thing Miami needs to do more of is play sound defense.
Above– You can see the Narduzzi system in play. Own the edge, keep the outside arm free, eat up your gap and hold your water. System football is a beautiful thing. Everyone working on a ‘chain’ scraping down and over together to avoid cutbacks and open gaps.
Above– This looks like Pitt is playing Miami defense. Lazy tracking, over-running the play, diving at ankles instead of moving your feet. Louisville is going to get theirs if the defense plays like that.
Above– Pressure, holding rush lanes, not letting the QB set his feet, and playing aggressive Pitt defense. These gunslinger types will make mistakes.
Above– The key to playing against a great offense is to not give up anything cheap. Both DB’s converge here and keep this deep shot from getting even worse. No explosive TD’s here, just a big 1st down.
Above– Plummer doesn’t want to run, he’s going to keep looking downfield. When the initial interior pressure doesn’t get home, that outside pressure can slow him up. That allowed the backside DE to get there. Rueben Bain Jr. and Elijah Alston should get their shots against Shough in ‘24.
Above– This was almost one of those ‘letting up the cheap one’ moments. If Thrash doesn’t slip it’s a TD and L’ville lead. Thrash ran this route perfectly, he fakes the inside block and slips up the goal post.
Above– It took us a while to get here, but this is the same rub concept that Miami DB’s ran into each other and turned into a Cards TD. Pitt plays this like a basketball team working off of a pick and roll or screen.
The CB and LB go under, the S goes over. Plummer overthrows the WR and the Pitt DB holds onto the INT. Miami needs those playmakers to, gasp, make plays! Communicate, have rules on man to man rub concepts, and stop doing little league stuff out there.
Wrap up
Louisville was far from a perfect team in any aspect in ‘23. They knocked off ND and Miami but lost to Pitt and Kentucky. Miami has a blueprint for how to get to Brohm’s system, while still giving up some points.
2024 Prediction
Whle Miami has the off week to prepare for Louisville, the ‘off week woes’ have trickled over from Manny Diaz to Mario Cristobal. UofL faces UVA on the road prior to hosting Miami at L&N Stadium.
As much as I think Miami is improved in ‘24, I can’t see the combinations of Cristobal, Shannon Dawson and Lance Guidry outsmarting Jeff and Brian Brohm and Ron English. This one comes down to a kick.
Way too early game prediction: Louisville by 3.