The Seminoles are looking to reload, not rebuild for 2024. Mike Norvell hit the transfer portal once again and looks to replace a plethora of NFL talent from their 13-1 season.
The Florida State Seminoles started the season 13-0 including an ACC Championship Game victory. Then the tide turned. With quarterback Jordan Travis injured the College Football Playoff Committee decided to send the ‘Noles to the Orange Bowl but not the playoff.
In Mike Norvell’s fourth season in Tallahassee, FSU wrapped up the year 13-1, and that pushes Norvell’s record at FSU to 31-17 (19-13 in the ACC). In four years as the head coach of the Memphis Tigers, Norvell was 38-15 (24-8 in the AAC) but lost all three bowl games that he coached in.
The Seminoles will face three preseason ranked opponents: the Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the road, and the Clemson Tigers at home. FSU will also head to Ireland to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, and they host the rival Florida Gators to end the season.
Miami has a close all-time lead over the ‘Noles 35-33, but FSU has a three-game win streak over the ‘Canes and will be looking for a 4th win in a row this October.
Program Evaluation
Acquisition
The ‘Noles wrapped up their 2024 recruiting class 3rd in the ACC and 12th in composite rankings. FSU’s top rated recruit in ‘24 was QB Luke Kromenhoek from Savannah, GA. Per usual under Norvell, FSU hit the transfer portal hard coming up with the country’s 7th rated transfer class. FSU added QB DJ Uiagalelei, along with Edge Marvin Jones Jr., and RB Roydell Williams.
In ‘23, FSU had the 19th ranked composite class and the 6th rated transfer class in the country. FSU has built up really strong offensive and defensive lines, much like Miami. The Seminoles will have Patrick Payton and Jones Jr. at the ends with Darrell Jackson inside. Last season Payton led the Noles with 14.5 tackles for loss and even logged 10 PBU’s.
Development
FSU has 31 active NFL players, including a run of Norvell’s prospects including Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Trey Benson, Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell, and others. And if you were wondering- yeah those are mostly transfers. However, in this iteration of college football, that’s going to be more common than ever.
Deployment
Deployment objectively can best be judged by Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system. The SP+ combines returning production with recent recruiting (recency is biased) and recent history (2-4 seasons).
FSU will be the most talented team on Miami’s regular season schedule. Per the SP+, the ‘Noles are 12th in FBS. FSU’s offense is ranked 19th, defense 11th, and kicking game 8th. FSU projects to be the most well-rounded opponent for Miami, alongside the Louisville Cardinals.
Miami’s SP+ OODK has the ‘Canes at 21st overall, 17th on offense, 38th on defense and 3rd in kicking. Even with the amount of talent Florida State lost to the NFL after last season, they’ll still be a tough match-up for the Hurricanes this fall.
Level Up: Area of Improvement
The ‘23 Seminoles finished 19th in points scored per game with 34.6 and 18th in points allowed per game with 19.3. I’m not sure where FSU really needs to ‘improve’ per se, besides on having a capable backup QB in case Uiagalelei meets the same fate as Travis.
FSU fans wish the ‘Noles didn’t have to rely so heavily on the transfer portal, but Norvell knows (much like Cristobal) that this is a win-now situation with the ACC being in disarray and the “Power 2” forming and closing out the other conferences from the playoff picture.
it’s now or never for the ACC teams that wish to get into the SEC and Big Ten, and not be left in some lesser tier with the Big 12 and ACC leftovers.
Hedgehog Concept
“DJ U” saw a drastic improvement under Jonathan Smith’s leadership at Oregon State. That could be due to coaching or it could be the weaker Pac-12 defenses. Uiagalelei’s completion percentage dropped but his yards per attempt rose from 6.8 to 8.4 and 8.7 adjusted y/a compared to 7.2 in ‘22.
FSU is going to ride behind their improved offensive line and the hope that Uiagalelei can continue their dual-threat QB offense while keeping his turnovers down like he managed in ‘22 and ‘23 compared to his 2021 season at Clemson.
Uiagalelei is a six-foot-four, 250 pound hoss to bring down when he’s in the open field and FSU can use him on their inside run game (think: Tim Tebow, Cam Newton) more than where they used Travis, which was in a more outside run mold.
All that to say, the FSU Hedgehog Concept will be Norvell as a QB repair man as he turned Travis from a single wing QB into a true All-ACC quarterback and can potentially do the same with Uiagalelei.
Most Interesting Game from ‘23
FSU’s dismantling of the Louisville offense is interesting on two fronts: Miami DC Lance Guidry couldn’t stop Jeff Brohm’s scheme at all, and FSU shut the Cards down to six points even without Travis playing and no offensive output on their side.
Then again I’m also interested in how the Seminoles put up 45 points on the LSU defense in Week One. Interesting sidebar: Former Miami DC Blake Baker is taking that same role with LSU after a successful run at Missouri.
Also worth noting that the QB, RB, and top three receivers in the game for FSU are off to the NFL. So it helps to acquire talent and a coach that knows how to deploy that talent.
Let’s look at how Travis won the showdown with Jayden Daniels. Daniels averaged 9.4 yards per attempt with one TD and one INT. He also picked up 64-yards on the ground. But Travis averaged 11 yards per throw with four TD’s and one INT, plus another TD on the ground.
Keon Coleman caught three TD’s and five different receivers had a 15+ yard reception. The only turnover was the ugly pick on the screen and the ‘Noles were 1-of-1 on 4th down even.
GIFs
Above– Double Fins is a great concept when you’re given a cushion. A slant could push Coleman into the safety but the Fin keeps his cushioned away.
Above– As improved as Travis became under Norvell as a true QB, he still had those ‘panic’ moments from earlier in his career in ‘23. We saw it against the Hurricanes, and here vs. LSU. The LSU defender keeps contain on the outside hip forcing Travis back inside to trouble and instead of grounding the ball at the WR’s feet he forces the throw for an INT.
Above– Something FSU improved on in droves under Norvell over four years was the OL play. Alex Atkins worked wonders with a group that’s been both developed and portal’d in for help. He took a true weakness under Jimbo Fisher and turned it into a strength for ‘24.
That gets Travis time to get into his second read, something he didn’t know how to do nor had time to do early on in his college career.
Above– Slot Fade is a concept I’ve loved for the better part of a decade. Getting an athlete like Coleman 1-on-1 with a safety in a jump ball situation is easy money. That’s why you want length at WR and can’t only have Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George slot type guys. Hopefully Sam Brown can be that guy for The U.
Above– When pressure picks up and your WR screens aren’t working (INT, TFL) you have to have adjustments. FSU throws the slip screen to the RB. Miami is susceptible to that type of screen (aggressive, LB’s have been bad in space) and hasn’t ran enough of them (Mark Fletcher and Henry Parrish couldn’t catch).
Above– Travis going into business for himself here. Same-side pull after the mesh charge. It works but man is that a risky move. Something you have to let playmakers do is make plays. If Miami wants to confine Cam Ward to a box it won’t work on offense.
Above– The FSU run game wasn’t getting much done, but it did pick up enough tough yardage to keep LSU honest later on play-actions. That’s all you’re asking for when it’s not working, keep the defense honest. You can’t quit on the run, period.
Above– Something Miami shut down well but works here is the QB run game. Designed pass-run options for the QB are deadly. Here Travis looks bubble and when the S runs over it he pulls it down and runs behind his blocker.
Miami can’t be afraid to run Ward when they need to, like Cristobal did with Justin Herbert at Oregon in big games.
Above– Instead of a red zone fade, this is a corner–out combo with the TE. The TE’s press to out keeps the S from helping over the top and Coleman’s physical nature helps him win the outside and he uses his body to box out the CB. I love that he gets his chest back to the ball as well, eyes-chest-hands.
Above– Why keep pounding the ball? So it opens up your play-action boot game. Between pounding Trey Benson (LB’ers run to it) and Travis’ ability to run (overhang runs down) LSU is losing all over the field. Have the WR’s do a little fake stalk blocking and sneak out into the numbers and you’ve got yourself a big play.
Above– This is the type of thing I thought Brashard Smith would be great for, and it hurts that he left this off-season. Getting under center in the +5 area and using the old wing-t jet sweep has been gold for the Kansas City Chiefs, and here with FSU.
Wrap up
It took him three off-seasons but Mike Norvell turned FSU into a 13-1 squad that is in the CFB Playoff if Travis doesn’t go down (and if Tate Rodemaker doesn’t go down, that might still have had a chance to be voted in).
2024 Prediction
Cristobal is trying to build Miami the same way Norvell built FSU. Load up on OL and DL guys, surround your QB with NFL talent at RB and WR, and play solid in the kicking game.
While I think Miami will be improved, and FSU won’t be as good with Uiagalelei as they were with Travis, I still think the ‘Noles are the preseason favorite to win the game.
BUT- let’s check back in October when it actually matters.
Way too early game prediction: FSU by 1.