Head coach Justin Wilcox has the Bears improving heading into year one of ACC play. Cal will host the Miami Hurricanes on what will probably be a beautiful day in early October.
The California Golden Bears finished the 2023 season with a record of 6-7, a nice improvement over their 4-8 record in ‘22. Cal lost the 2023 Independence Bowl to end the season, but the consolation prize was that it was their first bowl appearance since 2019.
Head Coach Justin Wilcox had the Bears moving in the right direction until the COVID shortened 2020 season. In 2020, Cal finished 1-3, and then followed that up with a 5-7 season. Wilcox is 36-43 as the head coach of the Golden Bears, and finished 21-37 in the now defunct Pac-12.
Cal faces three preseason top-25 teams in Florida State, the Miami Hurricanes, and the NC State Wolfpack. Cal hosts Miami and NCSU, but does have to travel all the way to Tallahassee, FL to face the Seminoles.
Cal and Miami have a 2-2 split record dating back to the 1964 season. In ‘64, Cal beat Miami 9-7 in a barn burner. Miami and Cal then played a home and home in 1989 and 1990, with Miami dominating the Bears 31-3 and 52-24 in the infamous “Miami Rules” game.
Program Evaluation
Acquisition
Per 247 Sports, The Cal Bears 2024 recruiting class landed at 12th in the ACC, and 55th in composite ranking. Cal took on 23 transfers via the transfer portal this off-season, but did not sign a single four or five star incoming freshman.
In 2023, Cal’s composite class ranking was 79th. They did sign four-star WR Nyziah Hunter in that class. Hunter redshirted in 2023 but the six-foot-two hit a 10.71 in the 100m in high school and looks to contribute as a second year player.
Development
There are 16 Golden Bears currently in the NFL, including quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Wilcox has put six safeties into the NFL during his Cal tenure and that could be a nice matchup between Miami QB Cam Ward and the Cal safety room in Berkeley.
Deployment
Deployment objectively can best be judged by Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system. The SP+ combines returning production with recent recruiting (recency is biased) and recent history (2-4 seasons).
The Cal Bears are 48th overall in SP+’s preseason rankings. Cal is 31st on offense, 78th on defense, and 129th in the kicking game. If Cal wants to pull out close wins and upsets they need to improve drastically in the kicking game, and on defense.
Miami’s SP+ OODK has the ‘Canes at 21st overall, 17th on offense, 38th on defense and 3rd in kicking. Miami’s offense might be too much for the Cal defense to handle in ‘24.
Level Up: Area of Improvement
Clearly both the kicking game and defense are areas where Cal has to level up in order to flip some of their close losses into wins in 2024.
Cal gave up 32.8 points per game to opponents a year ago, which was good for 114th of 133 FBS teams. Cal brought in nine new defensive transfers and a transfer kicker in order to improve their struggling defense and kicking games.
If I’m Wilcox and am struggling to stop opponents from scoring, I’m doing everything in my power to cut down on QB Fernando Mendoza’s turnovers. The young QB threw 10 INT’s in 2023 as a freshman. Freshman QB’s like Mendoza are more mistake prone as they learn what they can get away with at the collegiate level.
Hedgehog Concept
When you have a stud feature back like Jaydn Ott, you let him ride. Ott has rushed for 2,212 yards and 20 TD’s on 5.3 yards per carry in two seasons at Cal. Ott is a former Freshman All-American who can cap his Golden Bears career with another big season in ‘24.
Ott would be the focus of my offense and I would assume with Mendoza cutting down on his turnovers, the defense can stay off the field more and give up less points per game.
Most Interesting Game from ‘23
Cal faced five ranked opponents over six games in a brutal stretch of the ‘23 season. They lost all five of those contests but the did manage to beat Cam Ward and the Washington State Cougars.
This is our most interesting game as Miami fans, since the Bears knocked off Ward 42-39 in a four turnover game (the INT was on a Hail Mary) for Miami’s new starting QB.
GIFs
Above– The ‘tush push’ with Ward turns into a scoop and score for Cal. Ward is fumble prone and it really hurt against Cal with three in one game.
Above– Miami fans got a taste of dual-threat with D’Eriq King, but even he wasn’t as dual on the pass-side as Ward. When you have smart QB’s like King and Ward, you can run complex RPO’s.
Above– Ward reads the safety, when he runs with the TE, Ward pulls and follows his lead blocker, the RB.
Above– Ward pumps, resets, and fires in a beautiful ball. It’s away from the defender and right into the WR’s hands. He throws a beautiful ball and has more shoulder accuracy on his ball placement than say Tyler Van Dyke.
Above– When you have a mobile QB that’s athletic you can use them as decoys. Here Ward is the RPO read and when the overhang freezes the wildcat QB keeps behind two pullers for a TD.
Above– Ward was turnover prone against Cal. It was a high tendency fumble game on both sides.
Above– Ward drops a dime in on slot fade. It’ll be good to see slot fade again if Ward is dialing up some of his plays with OC Shannon Dawson. Xavier Restrepo will own slot fade from Ward. Sam Brown and Jacolby George are great decoys to hold CB’s.
Above– Ward does a great job of shaking the pressure, firing and delivering a strike. Flood concepts on boots are typically a winner.
Above– Hitting those old school slide and cross concepts from Madden in 2001. Dawson better open the book up to what Ward likes this season.
Wrap up
Cal got the best of Wazzu even with Ward at QB. Ward himself allowed Cal to stay in and win the game. Ward averaged only six yards per attempt on three TD’s, one pick (hail mary) and three fumbles while rushing for one score.
2024 Prediction
Cal isn’t very good but they have tape and experience beating Miami’s QB. Ward should fare better with Damien Martinez, Restrepo and the ‘Canes OL. Also, Cal doesn’t have Miami’s defense or kicking game, and neither did Washington State.
Way too early game prediction: Miami by 13.