The Miami Hurricanes are the clear favorite to be “state champs” in Florida by the end of the 2025 season.
The Miami Hurricanes are the clear favorite in the state of Florida heading into the 2025 college football season. Miami knocked off USF, Florida and FSU in 2024, and will look to continue that trend this fall.
And that’s not just subjective reasoning, I’m about to give you the objective reasoning as well- thanks to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Miami has the clear chance to prove the point in ‘25 by facing Florida at home while heading to Doak Campbell Stadium to face the Seminoles slapped between two idle weeks.
We’re going to take a deep look into returning production, SP+ projections, and scheduling benefits for Miami. Regarding the schedule, Miami faces Florida after USF, while the Gators have to play LSU in Death Valley before the ‘Canes. Miami has the idle sandwich for FSU, but the ‘Noles are on the road at UVA the week prior and host Pitt the week after Miami.
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Returning Production
Every off-season Bill Connelly of ESPN puts together his returning production numbers for the upcoming season. Per Bill C:
But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement or regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can tell us a lot. And in 2025, they tell us a lot about the state of college football.
The Clemson Tigers are the nation’s clear favorite in returning production at 81%. In the state of Florida, the USF Bulls are first on the list at 14th with a 67% returning production mark. Florida is 18th with 66%, FSU is 47th at 61%.
The Miami Hurricanes are 75th at 55%, FIU is 102nd with 45%, UCF is 106th with 45%, and FAU comes in dead last in FL with 42% returning production at 112th in FBS.
SP+ Projections
The SP+ projections in the early pre-season are based on three data points:
1. Returning production (see above). RP accounts for 66% of the projection.
2. Recent recruiting. This covers the past ‘few’ years of recruiting and accounts for 14% of the projection.
3. Recent history. Recent history accounts for the past three seasons of results (it was five in the early portal era) and 20% of the projection.
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Bill will update again in May and one more time in August prior to the start of the 2025 season allowing transfers to settle and depth charts to take place.
Miami leads the state of Florida in SP+ landing at 14th in FBS. The Hurricanes are 1st in offense, 49th in defense, and 19th in kicking. That’s bold data after the loss of QB Cam Ward, RB Damien Martinez, WR Xavier Restrepo, and PK Andres Borregales.
The Florida Gators are ranked 17th in SP+ and are the 2nd highest ranked team in the state of Florida. After UF and Miami there’s a massive drop off in SP+ until 51st where the FSU Seminoles have fallen on hard times. If Mike Norvell’s squad stays in a bottom of the P4 placement at season’s end you can expect a new coach of the ‘Noles in ‘26.
UCF is projected as the 56th best team in FBS, with their rival the USF Bulls at 81st, FAU at 108th, and FIU at 119th.
The Wrap
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Clearly it’s too early to tell who will fall where by January of 2026. A year ago no one expected that drastic fall off from FSU, or the solid season the Gators put up. USF disappointed and Gus Malzahn left UCF for an OC role at FSU.
The Hurricanes return head coach Mario Cristobal and hope a series of transfers on defense with a new DC, and new QB Carson Beck, will provide the same spark that Ward gave Miami in ‘24.