Miami lost to unranked Georgia Tech which is a reoccurring trend on Mario Cristobal’s head coaching resume. Can Mario bounce-back like he did at Oregon in 2019 and win the conference championship game?
After Miami’s disappointing loss to Georgia Tech in Week 11, there are now only four undefeated teams left in all of the FBS. The Oregon Ducks, Indiana Hoosiers, BYU Cougars, and Army West Point Black Knights are the four remaining perfect squads. Oregon and Indiana, both in the Big Ten, are 10-0; while BYU (Big 12) and Army (AAC) are 9-0.
Clearly Oregon belongs as the top-rated team in college football after beating Boise State and Ohio State. Indiana is undefeated through 10 games but much like Miami they haven’t played a ranked opponent yet this season.
The AP Poll has Oregon no.1 and Ohio State no2. OSU’s lone loss came in a 32-31 road contest against the Ducks in Eugene. Texas is no.3, Penn State is no.4, Indiana no.5, Tennessee no.6, BYU no.7, Notre Dame no.8, Alabama no.9, Ole Miss no.10, UGA no.11 and Miami is no.12.
According to the SP+, Ohio State is no.1, Texas no.2, Oregon no.3, Ole Miss no.4, Alabama no.5, and then UGA, ND, PSU, UT, and Miami round out the top-10, respectively. Indiana is 11th while SMU is 12th.
So where does everyone fall in with regards to potential College Football Playoff implications? Let’s find out.
The Conference Champions
I’m going to run this down by P4 potential conference champion first, and who I think the G5 team will be in the playoff picture.
Big Ten: Oregon Ducks (10-0)
Best Win: SP+ 1st overall Ohio State Buckeyes.
Worst Loss: N/A.
Story: The Ducks and Buckeyes should meet again in the Big Ten Championship Game in December for the right to a first round bye in the CFP. Win or lose both will make the CFP.
SEC: Texas Longhorns (8-1)
Best Win: Oklahoma, 34-3 (28th in SP+)
Worst Loss: Georgia Bulldogs, 30-15.
Story: Texas has knocked off three ranked teams but lost their toughest game at home to UGA. We’ll get to see them in another tough tilt at Texas A&M to end the regular season.
ACC: Miami Hurricanes (9-1)
Best Win: Louisville, 52-45 on the road (SP+ 20th in FBS)
Worst Loss: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 28-23 (SP+ 55th in FBS)
Story: Miami played with fire all season including against Virginia Tech, Cal, Louisville, Duke and then GT. It finally caught up to the ‘Canes in Atlanta.
ACC: SMU Mustangs (8-1)
Best Win: Louisville Cardinals, 34-27 on the road (SP+ 20th in FBS)
Worst Loss: BUY Cougars, 18-15 at home (SP+ 22nd in FBS)
Story: SMU has the same win as Miami but with a better loss. The Stangs loss to BYU came in Week Three, and BYU is 22nd in SP+ vs. Ga. Tech being 55th.
Big 12: BYU Cougars (9-0)
Best Win: SMU Mustangs, 18-15 on the road (SP+ 12th in FBS)
Worst Loss: N/A.
Story: BYU has two big wins, one against 12th ranked SMU, and another against 18th ranked Kansas State. BYU has games against 7-2 Arizona State (49th in SP+) and 3-6 Kansas (42nd in SP+) left on the schedule. Houston is also climbing after a rough start and QB change.
Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images
G5: Boise State Broncos (8-1)
Best Win: Washington State (8-1), 45-24 at home (53rd in SP+).
Worst Loss: Oregon Ducks, 37-34 on the road (3rd in SP+).
Story: Boise State’s lone ranked opponent came away with a narrow win. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate at RB in Ashton Jeanty. BSU won’t be challenged again until the MWC Championship Game.
G5: Army West Point Black Knights (9-0)
Best Win: North Texas, 14-3 on the road (81st in SP+).
Worst Loss: N/A.
Story: Army’s true test comes against Notre Dame (7th in SP+) at Yankee Stadium on November 23rd. If they lose to the Irish their playoff hopes will crash. They also face rival Navy on December 14th.
The At-Large Bids
The ACC and Big 12 are unlikely to receive an at-large bid into the CFP’s first ever 12-team tournament. The loser of the ACC Championship Game will have two losses (SMU or Miami). SMU could backdoor in with a close loss to Miami, seeing as their only two losses of the season would come against ranked opponents, but if Miami loses count them out.
Notre Dame (8-1)
Best Win: Texas A&M, 23-13 on the road (13th in SP+).
Worst Loss: Norther Illinois, 16-14 at home (89th in SP+).
Story: If Notre Dame finishes 11-1 they’ll certainly make the playoff as an at-large. ND would have defeated Texas A&M on the road, Louisville, Georgia Tech in Atlanta, as well as then undefeated Navy and undefeated Army WP. ND has an uglier loss than Miami but at least has faced ranked opponents in their strange independent schedule.
Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The SEC
The SEC has a number of potential teams that could slide into at-large bids, just as the committee would want it.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (5th in SP+) lost to Vanderbilt, who the SP+ has at 61st and then to Tennessee who the SP+ has ranked 9th in FBS. UGA lost to Alabama and Ole Miss who are 5th and 4th in SP+, respectively.
Tennessee’s lone loss came against Arkansas in a 19-14 contest in Fayetteville. The Vols are currently 9th in SP+ and 6th in the AP poll. Ole Miss has two losses- Kentucky (47th in SP+) and LSU (15th in SP+). the LSU game went to overtime on the road in Baton Rouge.
UGA and UT will more than likely weed someone out when they play on November 16th in Athens, GA. The loser of that game will likely be eliminated from the playoff, even if UGA’s three losses have come at the hands of ranked teams in Bama, Ole Miss and UT.
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
The Big Ten
Oregon and Ohio State should face off in the Big Ten Championship Game and both teams will make the playoff regardless of outcome in that game. Oregon should walk into the BTCG 12-0, and Ohio State and Indiana will play to determine who faces Oregon.
Even if Indiana pulls off the upset, I still believe OSU makes the playoff having only lost to two 12-0 teams.
Penn State is in an interesting spot of their own. Their lone loss is to Ohio State, 20-13, at home. But they have a Miami level weak schedule otherwise. If PSU is 11-1 they’ll make the playoff as the Big Ten’s 4th team.
The Resume
When you look at who has lost to whom, the Hurricanes have the worst loss amongst potential CFP teams. Per the SP+, Arkansas is 35th in FBS while Ga. Tech is 55th. That means UT’s current only loss is 20 spots higher than Miami’s.
If Miami loses another game, they will not be in the playoff. Wake Forest, Syracuse, and the ACC Championship Game won’t have a high enough ranked opponent to backdoor into an at-large bid against the likes of SEC CG loser, the Big Ten CG loser, and the other SEC and Big Ten teams that play highly ranked opponents in both the AP Poll and SP+.
Thanks to Pitt’s loss to SMU, Miami controls their destiny to the ACC Championship Game and the automatic bid into the CFP for a P4 conference champ. You can see how a Miami loss eliminates them from the playoff using the NCAA.com predictor above. If ND is left out after beating three ranked opponents Miami certainly will be with two losses.
Most of the ESPN pundits predict Miami will win out, including an ACC Championship Game victory and make the CFP. Bill Connelly is the lone pundit that predicts a Miami loss while still making it into the CFP as an at-large.