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Nameless Top 25: Just the Records, No Brand Bias

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The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon - Season 12
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Great Disguise of Glorious Team Names

Every year the majority of teams ranked in the pre-season Top 25 are there because of brand name and reputation alone. Most egregious this year was Florida State (No. 10), but also Utah (No. 12), Oklahoma (No. 16), Oklahoma St (No. 17), Arizona (No. 20), Kansas (No. 22), USC (No. 23), and North Carolina State (No. 24) opened the season ranked even though they now sit with .500 or worse records.

Of course those teams shouldn’t be ranked – and they aren’t – but the damage is done because the bias of those teams’ rankings get undeservedly baked into other team’s rankings. Boston College and Georgia Tech got an early season ranking because beating FSU seemed like a big deal. It was not. LSU’s early season loss to USC didn’t seem so bad, but in retrospect it was pretty bad. Kansas State had two mid-season “big wins” over ranked Arizona and Oklahoma State teams, except both teams are now 3-5. There’s countless other examples.

Obviously this is a Miami Hurricanes blog site, but what inspired this article was a pundit arguing that Miami’s strength of schedule was weak because they had yet to beat a Top 25 team whereas a team like Illinois had beaten 3 top 25 teams – No. 19 Kansas, No. 22 Nebraska, and No. 24 Michigan. Of course, that’s grossly disingenuous since none of those teams are ranked anymore!

To get to the bottom of this blue blood bias, which Miami admittedly could be a beneficiary, I concocted a “Nameless Top 25” that’s only going to consider on the field results. Here’s the criteria:

  1. Overall Football Bowl Series (FBS) Record – simply put what is their record this year after cutting out any FCS fundraising wins (there have been no upset losses to consider this year).
  2. Power 4 (P4) Record – regardless what conference the team plays, what is their record against teams from the ACC, Big XII, Big Ten, and SEC plus independents Notre Dame and UConn as well as Pac 12 castoffs Oregon St. and Washington St.
  3. Great 5 (G5) Record – what is their record against the rest of the FBS field.
  4. Good Wins – defined as a blowout win (17pt+) against any FBS team, a win against a ranked team, or a win over an unranked P4 team that nevertheless has a winning record.
  5. Bad Losses – defined as a loss to any G5 team, a loss to a P4 team with a losing record, or a blowout loss (17pt+) to anyone even if they’re ranked.
  6. Head-to-Head – did you win or lose against other teams on this list.

That’s it. No advanced metrics or stats. Most importantly, no built-in bias of team or conference names. Just on the field results over half-way through the season. Who did you beat or lose to? Was it a P4 or G5 team, and did they have a winning record? Was it by a comfortable margin of at least 3 possessions? Finally, all things being equal you shouldn’t be ranked ahead of a team that beat you.

My suggestion for readers is to first look up and down the top 25 list with redacted names to see if you generally agree with the rankings and then scroll to the bottom to see the rankings revealed with the team names and their current AP ranking.

Nameless Top 25 (Week 10)

Team Ranked No. 1 (FBS Record, 7-0)

  • P4 Record: 6-0; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 7; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head to Head: beat Team No. 5; beat Team No. 8; blew out Team No. 25

Team No. 2 (7-0)

  • P4 Record: 6-0; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head to Head: beat Team No. 11; blew out Team No. 16

Team No. 3 (7-0)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 2-0
  • Good Wins: 6; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head to Head: none

Team No. 4 (7-0)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 2-0
  • Good Wins: 6; Bad Losses 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: none

Team No. 5 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 3-1; G5 Record: 3-0
  • Good Wins: 6; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 1

Team No. 6 (5-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-1; G5 Record: 0-0
  • Good Wins: 3; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: beat Team No. 7; blew out Team No. 17; lost to Team No. 18

Team No. 7 (7-1)

  • P4 Record: 4-1; G5 Record: 3-0
  • Good Wins: 7; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 6

Team No. 8 (5-1)

  • P4 Record: 1-1; G5 Record: 4-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 1; beat Team No. 21; blew out Team No. 22

Team No. 9 (6-0)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: beat Team No. 25

Team No. 10 (6-0)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: none

TOP 10 COMMENTARY

Everyone probably knows who the top team is, and deservedly so. No. 2 is slotted in there based on having two ranked wins, one being a blowout, even though this team has fewer ‘good’ wins than most of the Top 10. Team Nos. 3 and 4 are identical, but No. 3 gets the nod over No. 4 because No. 3 has beaten three teams with winning records (they’re unranked, 3 loss teams) while No. 4 has only beat one team with a winning record. Team No. 5 has a similar resume to 3 and 4, except of course dropping a game to the top team.

While the Top 5 seem easily placed, separating Team Nos. 6-10 was not easy. Team No. 7 is really good, but they have to sit behind No. 6 because of the head to head. But because Team No. 7 is really good other than that loss, it made sense to put 6 and 7 ahead of 8-10. Team No. 8 gets the nod over 9 and 10 because their only loss was to the No. 1 team and they also have a ranked win whereas 9 and 10 do not. Team 9 and 10 have the same resume, but I put 9 over 10 because they have beaten two winning teams compared to only one for Team 10 (same reasoning as 3 and 4).

Team No. 11 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-1; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 5; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 2; beat Team No. 23

Team No. 12 (7-0)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 2-0
  • Good Wins 3; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: none

Team No. 13 (5-1)

  • P4 Record: 4-1; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: beat Team No. 18

Team No. 14 (7-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-0; G5 Record: 2-1
  • Good Wins: 7; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: beat Team No. 15

Team No. 15 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-1; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 14; beat Team No. 19

TOP 11-15 COMMENTARY

Team No. 12 is the second-lowest rated undefeated team with just three ‘big’ wins, so it should sit behind Team Nos. 9 and 10. Team No. 11 with a close loss to No. 2 and five ‘good’ wins slides behind undefeated 9 and 10 with four ‘good’ wins, but ahead of No. 11 with just three ‘good’ wins.

There’s a good argument for Team 13 to be at least one or two places higher because of its ranked win, but ultimately this position made sense behind an undefeated team with five P4 wins. Team No. 15 should sit behind Team No. 14 because they have the same overall record but the head-to-head loss, and Team No. 14 could be way higher but for a bad loss (first team on these rankings to have one).

Team No. 16 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-1; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins 4; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: blown out by Team No. 2; beat Team No. 24

Team No. 17 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 5-1; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins 4; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: blown-out by Team No. 6

Team No. 18 (6-2)

  • P4 Record: 4-2; G5 Record: 2-0
  • Good Wins 6; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: beat Team No. 6; lost to Team No. 13

Team No. 19 (5-2)

  • P4 Record: 5-2; G5 Record: 0-0
  • Good Wins: 5; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 15

Team No. 20 (6-0)

  • P4 Record: 0-0; G5 Record: 6-0
  • Good Wins: 6; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: none

TOP 16-20 COMMENTARY

Team Nos. 16 and 17 are the highest rated teams to get blow out, but 16 gets the nod over 17 because it was to a higher rated team and they also beat a ranked team on this list. Most of these teams other wins were good, but their bad loss drops them outside the Top 15. Teams No. 18 and 19 are the highest rated two-loss teams, with No. 18 getting the nod for having beating the No. 6 team. Team No. 20 is the lowest rated undefeated team, having all good wins but none against a P4 team (i.e. they’re blowing lesser competition out). Every team below them either has either a bad loss or two losses. No. 20 felt right.

Team No. 21 (5-2)

  • P4 Record: 3-1; G5 Record: 2-1
  • Good Wins: 3; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 8

Team No. 22 (6-1)

  • P4 Record: 2-0; G5 Record: 4-1
  • Good Wins: 2; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: blown out by Team No. 8

Team No. 23 (5-2)

  • P4 Record: 4-2; G5 Record: 2-0
  • Good Wins 2; Bad Losses: 0
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 11

Team No. 24 (5-2)

  • P4 Record: 4-2; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 4; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: lost to Team No. 16

Team No. 25 (5-2)

  • P4 Record: 4-2; G5 Record: 1-0
  • Good Wins: 3; Bad Losses: 1
  • Ranked Head-to-Head: blown out by Team No. 1; lost to Team No. 9

TOP 21-25 COMMENTARY

Team No. 22 is the lowest ranked one loss teams with a ‘bad’ loss and only two ‘good’ wins. It wedges itself amongst four two loss teams. Team Nos. 21 and 23 each have avoided a ‘bad’ loss, but Team No. 21 has an extra ‘good’ win. Team Nos. 24 and 25 caught a ‘bad’ loss, but No. 24 has an extra ‘good’ win. No-one in this group has beaten another Top 25 team, separating these teams from higher ranked one and two loss teams.

Ranking Names Reveal

  1. Oregon (7-0); AP Rank No. 1 (same rank)
  2. BYU (7-0); AP Rank No. 2 (+6 rank)
  3. Miami (7-0); AP Rank No. 5 (+2 rank)
  4. Indiana (7-0); AP Rank No. 13 (+7 rank)
  5. Ohio State (6-1); AP Rank No. 4 (-1 rank)
  6. Georgia (6-1); AP Rank No. 2 (-4 rank)
  7. Texas (7-1); AP Rank No. 6 (-1 rank)
  8. Boise State (5-1); AP Rank No. 15 (+7 rank)
  9. Penn State (6-0); AP Rank No. 3 (-6 rank)
  10. Iowa State (6-0); AP Rank No. 11 (+1 rank)
  11. SMU (7-1); AP Rank No. 20 (+9 rank)
  12. Pittsburgh (7-0); AP Rank No. 18 (+6 rank)
  13. Tennessee (6-1); AP Rank No. 11 (-2 rank)
  14. Notre Dame (7-1); AP Rank No. 8 (-6 rank)
  15. Texas A&M (7-1); AP Rank No. 10 (-5 rank)
  16. Kansas State (7-1); AP Rank No. 17 (+1 rank)
  17. Clemson (6-1); AP Rank No. 11 (-6 rank)
  18. Alabama (6-2); AP Rank No. 14 (-4 rank)
  19. LSU (6-2); AP Rank No. 16 (-3 rank)
  20. Army (7-0); AP Rank No. 21 (+1 rank)
  21. UNLV (5-2) AP Rank No. 31 (+10 rank)
  22. Washington State (7-1); AP Rank No. 22 (same rank)
  23. Duke (5-2); AP Rank No. 35 (+12 rank)
  24. Colorado (6-2); AP Rank No. 23 (-1 rank)
  25. Illinois (6-2); AP Rank No. 24 (-1 rank)

Undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary of pre-season, big-name bias is the SEC. Blue bloods Notre Dame, Penn State, and Clemson are also ranked well above their worth.

The problem is that voters refuse to appropriately re-evaluate the blue-blood teams especially when other blue bloods are a let-down to their pre-season rankings. Beating Florida State, USC, Michigan, and Oklahoma is not as hard as we thought it would be in August. But it’s not like voters will ever re-think LSU’s victory over USC or Texas’ not-so-big victories over Michigan or Oklahoma (although to Texas’ credit, they blew those teams out so that’s still worth elevated consideration).

Meanwhile, undefeated BYU has every right to claim a Top 5 spot after handing very good SMU and Kansas State teams their only losses. Same with Indiana who has won every game it’s played by at least two touchdowns against solid competition. Boise State is another team getting shafted despite having a Heisman trophy contender.

Even Miami, to a lesser extent, is being held behind Georgia, Penn State, and Ohio State for no good reason. Miami has beaten three teams with winning records (Florida, Virginia Tech, and Louisville). Penn State has only beaten two teams with winning records (Illinois and Wisconsin). Same for Ohio State (Iowa, Nebraska). Forget the nonsense about ACC officiating – looking just at the records, Miami’s objectively better than all but Oregon and perhaps BYU.

At the bottom end of the rankings, teams like Ole Miss and Missouri have no business being ranked at this point in the season. Ole Miss has two losses including to (3-5) Kentucky, and Missouri got blown out by good but not great Texas A&M and Alabama teams. Colorado, Illinois, and even Duke absolutely deserve to be ranked ahead of Ole Miss and Missouri, but the AP poll has them ranked 19th and 25th.

Ultimately, pre-season polls will churn onward because the networks need a way to decide what teams get early season primetime TV slots. If the goal is to rank the best teams in the nation, then any poll before at least Week 8 is completely bullshit. But preseason polls will continue to exist, and surprise non-blood teams (especially G5, ACC, and Big XII teams) will always find themselves behind the Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State teams with the same record. But be wary, college football fans. Early season polls mean nothing aside from deciding who gets to play on network TV.