The ISU Cyclones head south to Orlando to face the Hurricanes in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on December 28th. Miami is a 3.5 point favorite and look to end their bowl game slump.
The Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes head to Orlando, FL to face off in The Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, December 28th at 3:30pm. Miami and ISU have never faced off before, so this is a new experience for both teams down at the Citrus Bowl.
The Miami Hurricanes haven’t won a bowl game since the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl against West Virginia under Mark Richt. Prior to ‘16, the ‘Canes hadn’t won a bowl since the 2006 Micron PC Bowl against Nevada.
Miami has only played in two New Years Six Bowls in 20 years, a 2004 win over FSU and a 2018 loss to Wisconsin (2017 season).
The Doppler
Per the SP+, Iowa State is the 28th best team in FBS, the 48th offense, 24th defense, and 75th kicking game. Miami is the 10th team in the country per SP+ overall, the 1st on offense, 41st on defense, and 16th in kicking game.
Miami is the top-rated team in the country in 3rd down offense converting 55% of the time, while ISU is 46th while converting 42% of the time.
4th down is another story and could be a dangerous down for the ‘Canes. ISU is 2nd in the country in 4th down conversions picking up almost 81% of their tries. UM is 9th while picking up 73% of their attempts.
On defense, Miami holds opponents to just 37% (47th) on 3rd down while ISU’s defense is 43rd at 36%.
Turnover margin per game is an area where the ‘Canes need to improve. Miami is 53rd in FBS with a +0.2. Iowa State is 35th in the country with +0.4.
Penalty yards per game are another key stat that can determine wins and losses in a close game. ISU is 2nd in the country in penalty yards per game with just 27.7 called against them. The “disciplined” Hurricanes are 122nd with 69.3 yards worth of flag per contest.
ISU kicker Kyle Konrardy has missed two PAT’s and seven field goals this season. That could bite them in a close one against a clutch kicker like Andres Borregales.
The Film
Iowa State was dominated by Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game 45-19. The Cyclones won 3rd and 4th down and the penalty yard data points, but turned the ball over three times while allowing massive chunk plays to Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo.
ISU Offense
QB Rocco Becht threw two touchdowns with one interception on 6.1 yards per pass. Becht hooked up with Jaydin Higgins for seven catches on 115 yards. ISU only completed passes to four receivers, with two going over double-digit yards per catch.
The run game was solid but nothing spectacular. Carson Hansen led the way with 52 yards on 10 carries while the offensive line held ASU without a sack and only four tackles for loss.
RB Abu Sama III fumbled twice, losing both to ASU.
Above– What will be open against Miami? Counter. ISU is going to try to run counter and especially against an undisciplined defense like Miami’s and their front six.
Above– Fake jet to swing will work against Lance Guidry’s defense. Any OODA Loop breakers are effective against Miami.
Above– A nice little goal line play here the RB coming out of the backfield on a slide route off of play-action will be open against Miami. The ‘Canes have been poor at covering the flats for years.
Above– Naked boot with the TE on a delayed release. I’m not looking forward to watching Miami try to defend this one.
Above– Sacks are available with four man pressures if it’s delayed. Miami is good for a targeting on defense per game.
Above– Slot fade is a dangerous weapon people need to use more. The Miami safeties could see a nice dose of this concept.
ISU Defense
Leavitt averaged 12.5 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He hit four different targets with double-digit yards per catch numbers. Leavitt also ran in a score of his own. Skattebo averaged 10.6 yards per carry with two TD’s.
ISU picked up one sack and five TFL’s against the Sun Devils. The defense also recorded three PBU’s.
Above– The standard look from ISU leaves them wide open for a good counter run. Their base 3-3 and 3-2 defense with five or six DB’s and two high safeties. The CB’s to the bottom are right around the hard deck with one pressed up.
Above– As you can see, counter for Miami should work if they can get Markel Bell to the front side of the play with Francis Mauigoa being the puller.
Above– If the run game can get going the play-action game will, too. Hitting the sidelines should be a premium for the ‘Canes vs. ISU.
Above– More play-action and now the WR is behind the defense. Jacolby George could really take advantage of this for Miami vs ISU.
Above– Under center fake jet zone against a three–down front at the goal line. ISU’s defense is lining up to make Mark D’Onofrio blush.
Above– Building the offense around counter would be a good idea. Now ASU has tagged an RPO slot fade and it’s a pretty throw and catch.
Above– ASU saw slot fade was open and kept hitting it. Shannon Dawson needs to see this and use it to his advantage, too.
Above– Skattebo has been everything I thought Damien Martinez would be for Miami. Skattebo catches the swing here and houses it for ASU. If he plays, this is a great opportunity for Martinez to prove he has that next gear we’ve hardly seen in ‘24.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami is a 3.5 point favorite and has a 68.7% win expectancy over ISU. The Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami over ISU are:
1- Win Bully Ball. Miami has to lock down and pound the rock against a team very comfortable with playing 5-6 DB’s and dropping 7-8. Pound the ball and get Martinez and Mark Fletcher going downhill.
2- Win the turnover battle. ISU clearly will fumble and throw picks, Miami can’t join them in the party. Turnovers have been key in Miami’s two losses.
3- Avoid costly penalties. Miami is hit for three times the penalty yards that ISU is. Those dumb penalties are going to cost you drives on either side of the ball. When the Cyclones can also convert 4th downs at a high clip that spells trouble for a bad defense.
Prediction: Miami by 3.