Miami needs to handle business against a mediocre Wake Forest team on senior day at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6, 2-4 in ACC) head south to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes (9-1, 5-1 in ACC) on Saturday, November 23rd at noon on ESPN.
Wake has split their rivalry games against NC State and UNC this season beating the Wolfpack by four but losing to the Tar Heels by seven. Miami is 8-3 all-time against Wake Forest and riding a seven game win streak dating back to 1969, grooovy.
The Doppler
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The ‘Canes are still the best offense in the country when it comes to 3rd down conversions. Miami is converting 55% of their money down attempts. Wake is 90th in FBS only converting on 36% of their 3rd downs.
One data point to keep an eye on is that WF is 28th in 4th down conversions hitting on 65% of their attempts while Miami is 10th with a 73% success rate on 4th down.
When it comes to opponent 3rd downs Miami is 35th in FBS, winning the money down 35% of the time. Wake’s defense is 98th on 3rd down, allowing almost a 44% conversion rate.
The Dekes are 107th in turnover margin per game with -0.6 per contest. Miami is 48th with +0.2 per game.
Miami is 123rd in the country with 68.9 penalty yards per game, while Wake is 75th with 51.4 yards from flags. Expect a sloppy game when it comes to penalties on Saturday.
The Wake kicker is a solid 15-of-18 on field goals this season and hasn’t missed a PAT. They do have a punt return for a touchdown which we know could hurt Miami, but they aren’t dangerous on kick off returns.
The Film
The film we’re going to use is Cal’s 46-36 win over Wake Forest from November 8th. Cal jumped out to a 29-14 lead and won the middle quarters 26-14 as well. I like to use a shared opponent and Cal also jumped out to a big lead on Miami before the 25-point comeback and Cam Ward’s Heisman Trophy campaign began.
The Dekes have been scoring 27.7 points per game (71st of 134 in FBS) and allowing 32.5 (114th of 134 in FBS). Will they break that trend like they did against Cal and put up big numbers against the Lance Guidry defense? Let’s find out.
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
The third and fourth down conversions went in favor of Wake. Cal converted 5-of-14 3rd downs and went 0-for-1 on 4th. Wake Forest finished 5-of-15 on 3rd down but 3-for-3 on 4th down. Miami will have to own 3rd and 4th down to handle Wake.
While Wake won the conversions, they lost the turnover margin 4:1 against Cal. Wake also won the penalty yardage margin with only 15-yards of flags while WF had 83-yards off of penalties.
Cal won the kicking battle making 4-of-4 field goals and 4-of-4 PAT’s, while Wake missed their FG attempt. Cal scored on a Wake Forest fumbled kick return (above) as well.
WF Offense
QB Hank Bachmeier has had a “meh” season behind center for WF. He was knocked out of the game against UNC and backup Michael Kern did have nearly double the yards per attempt but threw two picks in the loss.
Against Cal, Bachmeier threw two touchdowns but also three interceptions. Cal does know how to create a turnover so I would be weary of assuming Miami will pick him off three times on Saturday.
WF had all seven pass catchers average double-digit yards per catch against Cal. The two longest explosives were to Demond Claiborne for a 44-yard TD and Donavon Greene on a 45-yard TD catch.
Claiborne also averaged 4.9 yards per rush on 23 carries and scored one on the ground. Bachmeier also scored once on the ground along with RB Tate Carney.
Cal sacked Wake seven times with eight tackles for loss and recorded six PBU’s.
Above– You have to expect the slow mesh and rep it. Slow mesh is kind of like the old freeze option that Syracuse ran with Marvin Graves and Donovan McNabb. It takes timing and preparation to run, and to defend.
Miami is going to struggle with the WF run game unless drastic changes have taken place in the past two weeks.
Above– The Miami DL needs a bounce back game. Rueben Bain, Tyler Barron, et al have to create pressure and turn that into sacks. Sacks are drive killers for an offense.
Above– Slow mesh with an RPO skinny post for a 1st down and trip inside the +10.
Above– Slow mesh doesn’t guarantee success. Mesh charge, where the DE runs directly at both players with a head of steam, pays off for a Cal TFL.
Above– “What is open for WF?!” A double reverse pass could get wide open. A lack of eye discipline for Miami’s back seven is a true issue on trick plays.
Above– Neither Wake QB is very good. Here’s a fade that got picked off. Does Miami have an active CB that can make this play? OJ Frederique could be that guy. I can’t imagine he’s the player you’d attack with this, however.
Above– This time instead of leading up and over they throw a back shoulder throw. Perfect timing and then back tackling from the Cal CB.
Above– On the comeback trail Wake motions to trips to run stick. The TE is open enough and makes the play. Imagine setting this up to Mauigoa’s side for the Dekes OC.
WF Defense
Fernando Mendoza averaged only 6.9 yards per attempt while scoring three times (two passes, one rush) and throwing one interception.
Mendoza averaged 5.1 yards per rush even including three sacks. Ward needs to scramble and release to pick up third downs, not wait and try to chuck it deep.
RB Jaivian Thomas averaged 6.6 yards per carry with a score, but Jaydn Ott was held to only 1.6 yards per carry.
Only four Cal receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch vs. WF. Two Golden Bears caught explosives vs. Wake.
The Cal offensive line allowed three sacks and eight tackles for loss. Wake’s defense accounted for only two PBU’s and will have to pick that number up when facing Miami.
Above– Y Cross is open, it’s an Air Raid staple. Xavier Restrepo running the cross with Damien Martinez and Cam McCormick in the backfield in pass pro could help Miami get the deeper throws out.
Above– Bash concepts are pretty fun in the run game. The counter action goes with the QB run, if the back side DE squeezes with the pullers it’s a give read to the RB.
Above– A little rub route with Isaiah Horton and Retrepo would work nicely here like it does for Cal vs. Wake in the red zone.
Above– Motion to slide draws the overhang and a little outside-in move frees up the post for a split second and a 1st down inside the +5.
Above– Ward has been susceptible to a strip sack over his FBS career and Mendoza is the victim to one here. If Wake is smart this game is short-short-short and possessions are at a premium.
Above– I doubt Miami runs Ward on a power read. Ward is at the ‘saving myself for the NFL’ moment of the season if you read the tea leaves between the FSU, Duke and Georgia Tech games. Instead, Miami can run shovel option with Elijah Arroyo underneath on the shovel and someone faster like Ajay Allen as the ‘pitch man.’
Above– A jump cut and three broken tackles? Miami is going to give up these 3rd and short type of plays unless LB Mauigoa and Wesley Bissainthe play with their eyes up for once.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami’s win expectancy is 95.7%. Miami is a 20+ point favorite over Wake per most of the gambling sites. The Canyonero Keys to Victory vs. Wake Forest are:
1- Win Bully Ball. This summer I had this as a bully ball win, but if Virginia Tech hadn’t already drawn the blueprint Georgia Tech just dropped the pin to Miami opponents on how to beat Guidry. Miami will need to dominate the Wake RPO game and slow mesh handoff while proving they can run on the Demon Deacons defense.
2- Win the kicking game. The Hurricanes have the best kicker in the country and need to continue to take advantage of that weapon. Where Miami has struggled is on covering kicks and punts, and returning kicks and punts. Cal won the kicking game vs. WF, Miami needs to as well.
3- Limit WF’s big plays. Miami clearly can’t afford to suffer from a pair of 40+ yard TD throws and Wake’s ability to grind the clock on the ground. If teams are smart they will limit the ‘Canes possessions playing slow and picking up 3rd and 4th downs on the ground before attempting a deep shot against a group of struggling DB’s.
Prediction: Miami by 17.