Syracuse hosts Miami on Thanksgiving weekend in what could be the Super Bowl for the Orange. Miami is a double-digit favorite on the road.
The Miami Hurricanes (10-1) head to Syracuse, NY to take on the Syracuse Orange (8-3) on Saturday, November 30th at 3:30 on ESPN.
Miami currently has a six game win streak over Syracuse dating back to 1999. Miami was slaughtered by ‘Cuse in the Orange’s last win over the Hurricanes, on Thanksgiving weekend, with Donovan McNabb at QB in ‘98.
The Doppler
The SP+ analytics has Miami as the 8th overall team in the country. The Miami offense is 1st in the nation, the defense is 31st and the kicking game is 12th. Syracuse is the 53rd ranked team in FBS. The Orange offense is 28th, the defense is 82nd and the kicking game is 103rd.
The Hurricanes offense is still the best in FBS on 3rd downs converting on 55% of their attempts. Miami is also 8th on 4th downs converting 73% of their tries. The Syracuse offense is 9th on 3rd down, converting on 48% of attempts and 14th on 4th down converting on 70% of their tries.
The ‘Canes defense is 28th on money downs holding teams to 35% conversion rate. The Syracuse defense is 48th on 3rd downs holding their opponents to 37% on the money down.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Miami is 49th in turnover margin per game with a +0.2, while Syracuse is 65th with a 0.0 margin.
The ‘Canes are 119th on penalty yards per game after being flagged for almost 68.5 yards, while the Orange are 109th in FBS after being flagged for 63-yards of penalties. This is going to be a sloppy game on both sides.
Syracuse has trotted three kickers on the field and while they’ve only missed one PAT, they’ve struggled on field goals going 12-of-20. Syracuse is pretty even with Miami when it comes to punt and kick returns- ineffective.
The Film
We’re going to take a look at the Syracuse at Cal game from Nov. 16th. The Orange knocked off the Bears 33-25 and being a ‘like’ opponent they’ll make for a strong comparison. Cal is currently the 38th best team in FBS per the SP+.
Syracuse won the game while converting on 11-of-22 3rd and 4th down conversions, while Cal finished 8-of-13 on money downs.
Cal turned the ball over twice while Kyle McCord and the Orange did not turn the ball over. ‘Cuse was flagged for 50-yards in penalties while Cal was only flagged for 36.
This could be proof you can lose penalty yards and money downs but not the turnover battle with a 2-TO disparity.
‘Cuse Offense
McCord finished with one touchdown on 7.0 yards per pass attempt against a strong Cal pass defense.
Three Orange receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch, and Oronde Gadsden II went off for 109 yards on eight catches.
RB LeQuint Allen took on the workload averaging 4.7 yards per carry with two scores. The ‘Cuse O-Line allowed only one sack and three tackles for loss.
Above– This is a play-action and designed screen. Syracuse throws it out and a well coached Cal team sniffs this out from film study. One defender comes off a block and the other capitalizes.
Above– 4th downs will be at a premium in a high scoring affair. SU isn’t afraid of the QB sneak “tush push” stuff. I was surprised Cam Ward agreed to the QB sneak vs. Wake Forest. I thought he had a Patrick Mahomes rule going on re running the football, especially a sneak.
Above– Combo to the second level, show patience. Slow to / fast thru. if I’m ‘Cuse I’m mixing in stretch, toss, jet sweep with some outside zone vs. Mauigoa and Tyler Baron types that struggle to work laterally (Maui) and set the edge (Baron).
Above– Take your check downs, especially vs. Miami’s LB’ers and with how poorly the ‘Canes track and finish in space. If an OC can get Mauigoa or Alderman on a RB 1-on-1 you take it every time.
Above– Madden 2003 stuff here. Under center, I-Formation, quick pitch for a TD. Cal isn’t even fooled, they just can’t make a play in space.
Above– What’s open vs Miami? How about a deep crossing route with a RB in the flat under it as a check down?
Above– When you know they struggle to tackle in space you attack space. Make their CB’s step up and do the job before you make things too complex.
‘Cuse Defense
The Orange defense held Fernando Mendoza to one touchdown with two interceptions on 6.6 yards per attempt.
RB’s Jaivian Thomas and Jaydn Ott both had days averaging 26.7 and 7.1 yards per carry and one touchdown a piece.
Five Bears receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch numbers against ‘Cuse, meaning Miami should have an explosive day on offense and defense.
The Cal offensive line allowed four sacks and nine TFL’s against the Syracuse defense.
Above- SU is coached up. This little swing no screen play doesn’t work. It’s a TFL. A couple of things… why pull the OT vs. letting the DE come upfield and inside?
When it comes to the OODA Loop you allowed the defense to run play side, with a key (the OT) leading you there with the orbit and swing. Just not well designed or executed and one-read screens are dangerous plays.
Above– ‘Cuse drops seven and gets a slight push from the front four. Four over three to that side and it’s an easy pick underneath.
Above– This one isn’t entirely on Mendoza, it’s also a great play from the DB. Timing and preparation leads to execution. This is also why you want to throw balls outside if it’s back shoulder, so it’s out of bounds or a catch, not a pick.
Above– What’s open vs the ‘Cuse defense? Split zone with an explosive back. It’s Jordan Lyle’s time to shine.
Above– Now Mendoza does go back shoulder drop out and it works. 1st down and out of danger.
Above– Not every split zone is made equal. SU has seven roll into the box and stuff this SZ for a TFL.
Above– Insert zone goes to the house. Patience and vision are necessary tools for a RB. Mark Fletcher would look good running this inside the red zone.
Above– More patience and vision. Let the play develop and find the hole once the OL can work their combo to the 2nd level.
Above– I’m a big fan of smash. Cal is bunched in tight and it’s slide from the outside guy and corner from the inside guy. Mendoza drops it in there.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, the win expectancy for Miami is 81.7% and typically a 10 point favorite over ‘Cuse. The Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami are:
1- Out-gun the gunners. ‘Cuse hardly plays defense and that’ll feed into Miami’s love of playing a high scoring, high possession game. I doubt Syracuse wants to slow down and run the game that Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech ran against UM. They’ll more than likely come out guns blazing, looking to embarrass Lance Guidry’s secondary.
2- Keep the pass rush coming. If Miami wants to beat McCord they have to be in his face. Blitzing Francisco Mauigoa creates a hole in the pass defense, but he wasn’t going to fill that hole anyway. Bring the heat and keep McCord off balance or he’ll carve you up.
3- Cut down on the stupid mistakes. Kick returns for TD, fake punts, trick plays, bad penalties, dumb turnovers- these are the things Miami has to avoid in a high scoring game. I think this will stay close, about a 10 point game, Miami can’t afford that quarter where Ward throws ugly picks and they settle for FG’s after penalties shoot the drive in the foot.
The Prediction: Miami by 10.