The Hurricanes are heading to Atlanta to face the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Can Brent Key play the spoiler role to Mario Cristobal’s perfect season?
The Miami Hurricanes (9-0, 5-0 ACC) are hitting the road to Atlanta, GA to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-4, 3-3 ACC) on Saturday, November 9th. The game will be played at Noon on ESPN.
Mario Cristobal and Brent Key have split the series 1-1 including the infamous ‘No Kneel’ game from 2022. Ga. Tech hosts Miami after a week off to prepare for the ‘Canes and heal up some key injuries like QB Haynes King.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics, Miami is the 7th best team in college football. The ‘Canes offense is 1st, defense is 31st and the kicking game is 15th. Georgia Tech on the other hand is ranked 57th overall. The Jackets are 44th on offense, 66th on defense and 117th in kicking.
The Hurricanes are still 1st in the country in 3rd down offense converting at just under 57%. The Jackets are 85th and converting 37% of their money downs. While Miami is also the best team in the country when it comes to converting 4th downs at 90%, Ga. Tech is much better at 4th down than 3rd down, converting 59% of the time.
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The Hurricanes are 42nd in FBS with a +0.4 turnover margin while GT is 74th in the country with -0.1. This is a slight but important edge in turnover margin per game towards The U.
UM is 123rd in penalty yards per game as they’ve been flagged for 73.1 yards per contest. The Yellow Jackets are 18th in the country with only 39.8 yards of flags per game. Miami has been great at dragging teams into their muck this season and that could continue Saturday.
Over the season, GT is 72nd in FBS in points per game- scoring 27.7 which is on par with Miami’s 22.6 PPG allowed this season. GT did improve their PPG allowed and have crawled up to 52nd in FBS while allowing 22.4 per game, but Miami is scoring 47.4 PPG which is the most PPG in the country.
Andres Borrgales needs to kick away from Erin Singleton Jr. on KO’s to avoid any issues with Miami’s kick coverage. Jackets kicker Aidan Burr is 8-of-14 on field goals and has made all 31 PAT’s.
The Film
We’re going to use the Louisville Cardinals 31-19 win over Georgia Tech as a reference point. Haynes King was healthy for that game, and I think after an off week King will play against the Hurricanes.
The Cards and Jackets were both horrible on 3rd down as L’ville was held to 2-of-9 (but 1-of-1 on 4th down) while GT was held to 4-of-15 on 3rd down and 3-of-5 on 4th down. If Key has anything it’s cuts on 4th down but he sure does settle for a lot of field goals.
The Cards were flagged for 69 yards of penalties while the Jackets were hit with just 44 yards of yellow flags. GT won both the time of possession battle and turnover margin.
The Jackets O
Haynes King averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt against the Cards, but didn’t throw a touchdown while fumbling the ball away once. King did rush for one touchdown on 4.1 yards per carry.
The Cardinals defense did shutdown Jamal Haynes. Haynes scored once, but averaged only 2.1 yards per carry. RB Trelain Maddox didn’t provide a spark vs. U-of-L, he was held to to 1.8 yards per rush.
In the passing game, Malik Rutherford caught seven balls for 113 yards on 16.1 per catch. Eric Singleton Jr. averaged 17.6 yards per grab against the porous Ron English pass defense. Five Jackets hit the double-digit yards per catch mark with four hitting on explosives.
Louisville didn’t sack King but their defense did come away with seven tackles for loss and of course a touchdown on a blocked field goal.
Above– What am I running to beat Miami’s defense? Screens out of different looks and motions. Window dress it to mess with the DB’s OODA Loop but keep it simple in scheme for your offense.
Above– This is Power read. King is reading the overhang player at the LOS. When he works deep to the RB, King pulls. The backside OL is using a ‘kick and log’ block on the near EMOL (end man on line). The OL crashes down and works to the 2nd level (LB) and King can pull and score.
Above– King reminds me of a HS quarterback in a HS offense. Here he runs QB draw, there’s a post snap RPO to the WR who is alone by the #’s but a Cards defender jumps his ‘pitch’ and it results in a Louisville TD.
The Miami defense was ball hawking more than usual against Maalik Murphy and Duke (or was he just hand delivering turnovers?). Need that here against a GT offense that wants to limit possessions and eat the clock.
Above– GT is going to run run run and eventually try to set up a play-action deep shot on a post like this. The Miami safeties are going to have to read keys more than ever. High hat on OL means you have to rip back and cover deep.
Above– Both the post and wheel are double covered and King should take off but he throws into double coverage instead. Miami can’t get beat in double coverage. Guidry has to coach his guys up and get these safeties playing better football.
Above– I love the shallow cross as a beater against Miami’s defense and I’d love to see Zaquan Patterson get more playing time at safety and deliver a legal blow like this.
The Jackets D
Tyler Shough carved up the Jackets defense like a Thanksgiving turkey hitting on two touchdowns without a turnover via 14.2 yards per pass attempt.
The carries for Louisville were split up and that didn’t benefit their run game at all. Freshman sensation Isaac Brown was held to 2.3 per rush, and Don Chaney’s 2.3 YPC was upstaged by Shough’s 4.8 per carry.
The Cards hit on some absolute dimes and I expect Miami to do the same. Ja’Corey Brooks averaged 31.3 yards per catch with a score and a 57-yard explosive. Five different Cards averaged double-digit yards per catch, including Chris Bell’s 41-yards per grab and a score.
Ga. Tech failed to sack Shough and their defense only hit three TFL’s. What’s going to hurt the GT defense vs. Miami is their zero PBU’s against Louisville. They did force Shough into a sack-and-safety in the 4th quarter but couldn’t capitalize on it.
Above– Shough has a nice play fake here and drops a dime on the corner route in tight coverage. He throws it outside and deep where it’s either incomplete or caught by his man. You can’t throw this ball short-behind even in the slightest or it’s bad news.
Above– GT did their best to stop Brown and the run game. I’m not sure that’s the best play against Miami. I would play zone, take away Ward’s deep shots, and force him to put together a drive without getting greedy.
Above– Naked boot with a fade away floater from a weird arm angle… look familiar? Shough does a great job of reading this hi-low and going high.
Above- Xavier Restrepo on a crossing route sounds great to me. Let Elijah Arroyo run the hunt-dig or mesh with him as a big body to eat up space and set natural picks on mesh or shallow.
Above– Play-action again and Shough hits the deep fade. A lot of hand checking going on and the GT cornerback quits… I have no idea why he stops even if the WR is out of bounds run through the play.
Above– Shough is a 7th year QB in college and is making freshman mistakes. He trips and needs to just eat it and take the safety. If his error is picked off it’s six points and a PAT from a tie ball game instead of just two and forcing GT to drive.
The Jackets Kicking Game
This was the kind of muddled up high school+ type of game Brent Key likes, or at least has turned Georgia Tech in to. Geoff Collins took a ton of flack, and rightfully so, for the Jackets woeful kicking game. But Key has been in charge for 2 1⁄2 seasons now and it’s more of the same for the boys in Atlanta.
Above– In the 1st quarter GT blocks a UofL field goal attempt to keep the game tied at nil. Borregales is an automatic kicker but the protection has to hold for him.
Above– On the other side in the 4th up 5, Louisville blocks a FG attempt and returns it for the ‘nail in the coffin’ touchdown to seal the game.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, the win expectancy is 76.9% in favor of the ‘Canes. The Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami vs. Ga. Tech are:
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1- Bully Ball or Air Raid? Brent Key is going to run the ball, and stop the run. I think Mario leans on Ward and Shannon Dawson’s Air Raid background for this one. Cristobal has allowed himself to adapt more this season in order to get wins any way possible versus only “his way.”
2- Deep shots. Lance Guidry’s DB’s have been giving up deep shots like crazy and if King is at QB the Jackets will take a few tries downfield. Singleton is a weapon and can’t get deeper than the deepest man. Guidry needs a massive turnaround on defense or he’ll be on the chopping block this summer with a guy like Mark Stoops potentially coming free this winter.
3- Win the kicking game. Ga. Tech has been a mess in the kicking game for the better part of a decade. Miami has to finally hit that spark in the kick return game, maybe even block a field goal and let Mr. Reliable, Andres Borregales, lock you in to the lead. Kicking has to be a focal point for Miami heading into the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff.
Prediction: If King plays it’s Miami by 10, if King is out it’s Miami by 20+.