The Seminoles head south to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes on Sat. October 26th at 7pm. FSU is reeling after a successful run a year ago while Miami is surging in 2024.
The Florida State Seminoles (1-6) hit the road down to Miami Gardens, FL to face the Miami Hurricanes (7-0) on Saturday, October 26th at 7pm.
The Hurricanes are looking to remain undefeated but in a rivalry game you can ‘throw the records out’ as the kids say. FSU is coming off of the program’s first-ever loss to the Duke Blue Devils while Miami survived a road trip to Louisville and a pesky Cardinals squad.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, the Miami Hurricanes are the 10th best team in FBS while the ‘Noles are 69th overall. Miami has the top-rated offense, the 43rd defense and the 28th kicking game. The Seminoles have the 96th offense, 31st defense, and 1st kicking game. This is the second best defense and best kicking game Miami will face all season if I’m not mistaken.
The ‘Canes have the best 3rd down conversion offense in college football at 59%. A lot of that comes with Cam Ward’s legs and picking up 1st downs on scrambles when he chooses to release and not hold the ball. FSU’s 3rd down offense is 129th in FBS at a lowly 27%.
Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The FSU defense is 84th in FBS at 41% while Miami’s money down defense is 16th at 31%. This does not bode well for FSU on either side of the football.
Miami is now 124th in penalty yards per game with 74.7. FSU has been flagged for 56.3 yards per game which is 77th in FBS.
The Hurricanes need to win the turnover battle and FSU is sitting at 126th in FBS in turnover margin per game with -1.4. Miami is 57th in FBS with +0.2 turnovers per game.
The Film
We’re going to take a look at the the FSU vs. Clemson game since that is the closest ‘talent level’ to Miami the ‘Noles have faced. Clemson beat FSU 29-13 in a game where the Seminoles converted all four of their 4th down attempts.
If the Tigers and ‘Canes both reach the ACC Championship Clemson has the 15th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense per SP+.
FSU Offense
Brock Glenn started the Clemson game and threw two touchdowns with one interception on 5.6 yards per attempt. The Tigers completely shut down FSU RB Lawrance Toafili holding him to 1.6 yards per carry.
FSU had four receivers in double-digit yards per catch averages and a pair of explosives from Landen Thomas and Hykeem Williams.
The ‘Noles offense gave up two sacks, six TFL’s and seven PBU’s to the Clemson defense.
Above– CU and Miami both play an aggressive and pressure packed style of football. Sacks should be available for Rueben Bain Jr who doesn’t even look 100% and has made plays every week since his return.
Above– High snaps can throw off the timing of both run and pass concepts. The high snap here is almost a disaster. Glenn saves the center and the drive but it’s a TFL for Clemson.
Above– The backs don’t trust the scheme. The back tries to cut outside of a kick out which is designed to open a lane (and does) inside, he then bounces to where the defender clearly is being block to and can help with his free arm.
Above– Glenn wants no part of keeping this and tosses into trouble. Broken concept from the start vs. that many box players. This is why you want to spread teams out, not condense them.
Above– Glenn throws this pick directly to the Clemson DB. This can be a bounce-back type of game for the ‘Canes DB’s to get confidence heading into the back half of the season. Or they can continue to get gashed and lose all faith.
Above– Glenn reminds me of Emory Williams. If he has time and a clear open receiver he can make the throw. He’s just not going to create chicken salad from chicken poop.
Above– Much like Miami fans knew there was talent on the 2023 roster, there’s talent on the FSU ‘24 roster as well. It’s just buried in bad QB play, murky play calling, and a broken locker room.
Above– Glenn rides the OZ RPO, when the safety works down the post is open and he jams it in there for a TD. He has some arm talent in there and can make certain reads, he’s just not Jordan Travis.
FSU Defense
Clemson QB Kade Klubnik averaged only 7.1 yards per pass attempt but threw two TD’s without committing a turnover. Phil Mafah and Klubnik combined for over 200 rushing yards with Mafah hitting 6.2 yards per rush.
The Tigers had four receivers hit the double-digit yards per catch range, including explosives from Antonio Williams, TJ Moore, and Josh Sapp. Williams and Moore both caught a TD pass from Klubnik.
The CU offensive line allowed one sack and five TFL’s while the DB’s logged only three PBU’s against the Tigers.
Above– There are parts of 2024 FSU that remind me of Manny Diaz and early Mario Cristobal Miami. This feels like a James Williams and Amari Carter blunder for FSU. I’m dying to watch Elijah Arroyo against the FSU backs.
Above– I do think this game starts off tight and is a crock potting (thanks Solid Verbal) late. FSU can still play defense. They’re one of the best SP+ defenses Miami will see all regular season (behind maybe only Louisville).
Above– So… what’s open?! Shannon Dawson’s beloved screen game. Just don’t have pipe cleaner arms Jacolby George as the lead blocker. How about Isiah Horton setting this up for Sam Brown?
Above– Much like I expect Cam Ward to, Cade Klubnik had a few nice runs both designed and on scrambles. But FSU’s talented from four does get to Klubnik here.
Above– Even down 23-7 FSU shows some spark of life and blocks a Clemson FG attempt. There are ‘Noles still working hard to create tape both for the transfer portal and NFL.
Above- Mark Fletcher needs to continue to get fed the rock. Use him as the starting RB, let Damien Martinez come in to pound on 3rd and 1 or 2nd and goal, and let Ajay Allen be the 3rd down back that can break a big one or catch the ball in space.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami has a 91.4% win expectancy over the Seminoles. The Canyonero Keys to Victory against FSU are:
1- Stay focused on the task. An exciting road win over Louisville and a hapless FSU doesn’t mean the ‘Canes can take their eye off the ball. It’s a rivalry game, at home, with what I’m assuming is a huge recruiting weekend so I’d imagine Mario Cristobal has the troops dialed in for the ‘Noles.
But Mike Norvell will certainly have trick plays up his sleeve for Miami. I would watch for an early onside kick and any other tricks to keep Ward on the sideline.
2- Don’t fall into the trap. FSU has nothing to lose and everything to gain in this Super Bowl type win for their season. The ‘Noles would love nothing more than to upset the ‘Canes undefeated season. Don’t fall into their trap by getting into a fight, committing stupid penalties, or trying to showboat instead of just steamroll FSU.
3- Clean up the fundamentals. DC Lance Guidry especially needs his side of the ball to clean up their act. Tracking, tackling, run fits, pursuit angles and coverage switches all need work for the ‘Canes defense.
Prediction: Miami by 14. Miami is going to score their typical 35+ points and I’m not sure FSU can muster up that kind of attack with Brock Glenn at QB.