Manny Diaz is coming home to Hard Rock Stadium to face his former team in an ACC matchup. The ‘Canes are heavily favored over the Devils.
The Miami Hurricanes (8-0, 4-0 ACC) are undefeated and will host the Duke Blue Devils (6-2, 2-2 ACC) on Saturday, November 2nd in an ACC matchup.
Duke head coach Manny Diaz is making his return to Coral Gables where he served as the Hurricanes defensive coordinator from 2016-2018 and head coach from 2019-2021.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, Miami is the 9th best team in FBS. The ‘Canes are 1st in offensive SP+, 31st in defense, and 24th in kicking. The Blue Devils are 43rd overall, 81st in offense, 20th in defense and 98th in kicking.
Miami is still far and away the best team in the country when it comes to converting on third downs. The top-rated ‘Canes convert on 58% of their money downs. Duke is 126th in the country as they convert only 28% of their 3rd downs.
The Hurricanes defense is 8th in 3rd down conversion rate holding opponents to 29%. Duke’s defense is 13th allowing only 30% conversion. This could be another 4th down fest like we saw in Miami vs. FSU.
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images
That said, the ‘Canes are converting just under 91% of their 4th downs which is good for 2nd in FBS. Duke is hitting on 44% of their 4th downs which puts them at 98th in FBS.
The Hurricanes are 128th in the country in penalty yards allowed as they’re flagged for 76-yards per game. Duke is 80th in FBS after being flagged for 56-yards per game.
Duke has picked off nine passes and forced 14 forced fumbles this season. On top of that the Devils have 30 PBU’s, 24 sacks, and ~65 tackles for loss. They’re as havoc’y as you’d expect from Manny Diaz.
Duke is 2nd in FBS with +1.9 turnover margin per game while Miami is 56th at +0.1 in turnover margin per game.
The Film
Let’s take a look at the Duke vs. SMU game as the Blue Devils generated six turnovers and still managed to lose the game 28-27 in overtime. A +6 turnover margin seems insurmountable and yet Rhett Lashlee’s squad pulled off the win.
Both squads finished 50% on 3rd down but Duke missed on both 4th down attempts. SMU converted on one of their two 4th down tries.
SMU is 17th in FBS overall, 12th on offense, 34th on defense and 50th in kicking. Rhett Lashlee’s squad is really over-performing the ACC debut season expectations of many with the Mustangs.
Duke’s Offense
The Duke offense scored four touchdowns while missing two field goals and an extra point. Maalik Murphy finished with only 6.1 yards per pass attempt but threw three touchdowns. RB Star Thomas averaged 3.8 yards per carry with one TD on the ground.
Three Duke receivers hit double-digit yards per catch averages including a 43-yard grab that could be a window to success for Duke against Miami’s messy defensive backfield.
Above– Manny being Manny… Duke tackles itself for a TFL early against SMU.
Above– SMU’s defense is 34th in SP+ which is only three spots below Miami’s. That means Duke can hit the deep shot on Miami, too, with how bad the DB’s have played this season.
Above– We need the sack squad of Simeon Barrow, Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor to keep it coming. Also- let Francisco Mauigoa blitz again, please.
Above– Back shoulder jump balls with a little throw by… Miami DB’s better get their heads right.
Above– Just a little window dressing for the OODA Loop. The “split zone” quality is the potential slide RPO to the motion man. That lures the overhang out, the LB squeezes and the RB can cut back to the house.
Above– Ah! More Manny being Manny. SMU blocks the FG, Duke missed two coming off of turnovers and short fields. If Miami does make mistakes- Duke capitalizes on very few on the offensive side of the ball.
Above– Duke beating guys 1-on-1 with a fade route. The inside-out move works on the fade, and he gets his chest and eyes back to the ball.
Duke’s Defense
Duke’s defense created six turnovers including three forced fumbles which Miami feels prone to allowing as well. Diaz’s defense came away without a sack and only two tackles for loss against a fast backfield in Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith.
Duke allowed a number of explosives but also clearly wrecked some havoc with turnovers. Duke LB Alex Howard could be a real issue for Miami. He’s logged 11 TFL’s and five sacks this season. CB Chandler Rivers could have a day, too. He has two picks and five PBU’s this year.
Above– Play-action with the slide route across formation to the flat. Dangerous stuff with Elijah Arroyo. Ward needs to keep looking to him and not always chucking it deep.
Above– The old Madden 2003 fake dive pitch play. Duke’s player spots it but can’t finish! Is watching Duke just watching Miami from ~2018-2021?
Above– Those little Jacolby George type mistakes can really backfire against an aggressive Duke defense. Duke gets the pick off the tipped ball for one of their SIX turnovers.
Above– QB Lead here and SMU scores. I’m not sure how much I want to see Ward doing this type of run without an RPO outlet for him.
Above– Manny is going to bring pressure, he can’t help himself. But he might try it with four and drop seven. Ward has to be aware of the underneath players that are looking to pick balls off in the intermediate middle.
Above– A sick double move for SMU here. Xavier Restrepo can use this fake fin and go move for sure. Nasty move, pretty throw, great TD.
Above– Cam Ward, cut the silly chit down like you did vs. FSU and this won’t happen to you!
Above– Good to see that Damien Martinez can go off vs. Duke. We know Manny doesn’t know run fits, tracking or finishing plays. “D-Mart” (Cam, not sure I like that one, buddy) should have another big one.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami has a 90.7% win expectancy against Duke and the game is just a noon’er on ABC. No primetime slate for the ‘Canes this weekend. The Canyonero Keys to Victory vs. Duke are:
1- Win Bully Ball. This summer I thought this was a bully ball type of game. Manny is going to blitz the house, his run fits are hot garbage- take advantage with split zone and quick RPO’s like stick and bubble. Duke will give Star Thomas the rock and follow that up with Murphy taking deep shots against this Miami secondary.
2- Limit turnovers. Duke is great at ripping the ball out and Cam Ward is careless with the football. He cut down his turnovers the past two weeks but he’s still loose with the ball and trying too hard to make the big play hit.
3- Take the points. Borregales certainly can hit his field goals while Duke is at a loss for making theirs. I thought Mario’s choice to take the points against FSU going into halftime was genius- win the middle eight and you more than likely win the game.
Prediction: Miami by 10.